国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250609

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: There are significant differences in pressure at the origin, and it is grinding at the bottom in a volatile manner [2]. - Soybean Oil: Supported by Sino - US sentiment, it fluctuates within a range [2]. - Soybean Meal: Overnight US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal fluctuates strongly [2]. - Soybean No.1: The spot is stable, and the futures price fluctuates [2]. - Corn: It fluctuates strongly [2]. - Sugar: It consolidates at a low level [2]. - Cotton: The improvement of market sentiment drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures [2]. - Eggs: The industry still has a resistance sentiment [2]. - Pigs: Weight reduction has just started [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,110 yuan/ton during the day session with a decline of 0.20%, and 8,130 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 0.25%. The trading volume was 626,813 lots, an increase of 91,154 lots, and the open interest was 419,221 lots, a decrease of 10,733 lots. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton [4]. - News: From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% [7]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [8] Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 7,738 yuan/ton during the day session with an increase of 0.81%, and 7,774 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 0.47%. The trading volume was 379,290 lots, an increase of 119,382 lots, and the open interest was 572,787 lots, a decrease of 17,954 lots. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - News: Brazilian producers' soybean sales volume has increased, but is still lower than last year and the five - year average [5][6]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [8] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamentals: The closing price of DCE soybean No.1 2507 was 4,149 yuan/ton during the day session with an increase of 11 yuan (+0.27%), and 4,147 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 5 yuan (+0.12%). The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 was 3,010 yuan/ton during the day session with an increase of 52 yuan (+1.76%), and 3,009 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 18 yuan (+0.60%). The trading volume of soybean meal was 14.45 million tons per day, an increase from the previous day [9]. - News: On June 6, CBOT soybeans rose due to Sino - US trade optimism. Drought in some areas may affect soybean growth [9][11]. - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal: +1; Soybean No.1: 0 [11] Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of C2507 was 2,340 yuan/ton during the day session with an increase of 0.34%, and 2,347 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 0.30%. The trading volume was 305,894 lots, a decrease of 64,264 lots, and the open interest was 964,005 lots, a decrease of 25,824 lots [13]. - News: The northern corn collection port price was 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou was stable [14]. - Trend Intensity: 1 [15] Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 16.51 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.11 cents. The mainstream spot price was 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main contract price was 5,735 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [18]. - News: The global sugar supply is expected to be in short supply in the 24/25 season. Brazil's production and exports have changed, and China's import volume has decreased [18][19][20]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 [21] Cotton - Fundamentals: The closing price of CF2509 was 13,360 yuan/ton during the day session with an increase of 0.87%, and 13,435 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 0.56%. The trading volume was 314,494 lots, an increase of 132,900 lots, and the open interest was 750,372 lots, an increase of 12,557 lots [23]. - News: The domestic cotton spot trading was mostly cold, and the cotton textile industry entered the off - season [24]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [27] Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract was 2,859 yuan/500 kg, a decrease of 0.63%. The trading volume was 69,678 lots, and the open interest was 7,559 lots [29]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [29] Pigs - Fundamentals: The spot price of pigs in Henan was 14,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The closing price of the pig 2507 contract was 13,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton [33]. - Market Logic: In June, the weight - reduction and de - stocking process will accelerate. The spot price is falling, but the 1 - month contract may be re - valued in the medium - term [35]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 [34] Peanuts - Fundamentals: The closing price of PK510 was 8,384 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume was 49,871 lots, a decrease of 663 lots, and the open interest was 149,398 lots, a decrease of 54 lots. The spot price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [36]. - Spot Market: The peanut prices in most regions were stable, with limited supply and trading volume [37]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [40]