国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250609

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Nickel: The reality support and weak expectations are in a game, and nickel prices are oscillating [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The negative feedback has led to an increase in production cuts, and steel prices are oscillating within a range [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: There is a short - term reduction in imports, and long - term supply exceeds demand, with prices oscillating [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: The sentiment has peaked, and the futures price has downward momentum [2][14]. - Polysilicon: The spot price has a downward driving force, and the futures should be mainly short - allocated [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,200 yuan, with a change of 630 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 98,620 lots, a decrease of 3,755 lots from T - 1 [4]. - The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,680 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 75,548 lots, an increase of 6,636 lots from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford mentioned that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [4]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, with an annual output of about 1.25 million tons of nickel metal per line [5]. - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][7]. - The Philippine parliament is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there was market news in May that the ban might start in June 2025, but its authenticity and start time are to be verified [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 60,440 yuan, with a trading volume of 256,782 lots and a position of 218,416 lots [11]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,200 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,600 yuan [11]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,485 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - Shengxin Lithium Energy's 60,000 - ton lithium salt project in Indonesia is expected to start mass - supplying in Q3 2025. The company also has business layouts in solid - state batteries [13]. - In 2025, the "New Energy Vehicle Going to the Countryside" promotion model catalog included 124 models, 25 more than in 2024, and Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y were on the list for the first time [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2507 contract was 7,290 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 666,383 lots and a position of 161,192 lots [14]. - The closing price of the PS2507 contract was 34,740 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 134,443 lots and a position of 65,179 lots [14]. Macro and Industry News - From May 26 to June 5, 2025, domestic enterprises won 17 bids for photovoltaic module projects, 5 more than the previous period, with a total procurement capacity of 777.01MW, a decrease of 61.59MW [15]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [8]. - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [13]. - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [16].