AKESO(HK:09926)2025-06-09 01:42Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to Akeso with a price target of HK$99.00 by December 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - Akeso's AK104, a PD-1/CTLA-4 bispecific antibody, has received approval in China for first-line treatment of persistent, recurrent, or metastatic cervical cancer, which is expected to significantly boost sales in China [1][4]. - The report anticipates a global development plan for AK104 to be announced in the second half of 2025, which could attract investor interest [1][4]. - Upcoming catalysts include sales figures for AK104 and AK112, the potential global development plan announcement, and detailed data from the HARMONi studies [4][5]. Summary by Sections Approval and Efficacy - AK104's approval is based on strong results from the Phase 3 COMPASSION-16 study, showing a median overall survival (mOS) not reached in the AK104+chemo cohort compared to 22.8 months in the control group, and a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 12.7 months versus 8.1 months [4]. Market Potential - The report estimates that AK104 could generate approximately RMB 6 billion in peak sales in China, while AK112 is expected to achieve over RMB 5 billion in peak sales in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [5]. Valuation - The price target of HK$99.00 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, assuming a terminal growth rate of 3.0% and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.4% [6].