高盛：美国-剖析股票市场对经济增长的定价

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the S&P 500 with a return forecast of +8% over the next 12 months, targeting a price of 6500 [3][46]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of hard economic data, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 139,000 in May and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. However, a softening of economic data is expected in the coming months [2][4]. - Market rotations suggest that investors are pricing in an optimistic growth outlook, reflected in the performance of cyclical versus defensive stocks, which indicates a real GDP growth environment of approximately 2% [6][2]. - Goldman Sachs economists forecast a slowdown in real GDP growth to 0.4% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis in Q4 2025, followed by a rebound to 2.0% by Q4 2026 [5][20]. Summary by Sections Economic Data - The report highlights that while hard economic data remains strong, soft data has shown signs of recovery, which typically precedes improvements in hard data during past recessions [12][16]. - The S&P 500 has been more correlated with soft data than hard data, suggesting that continued improvement in soft data could support equity returns even if hard data weakens [16][30]. Market Outlook - Investors appear to be looking beyond near-term economic weakness, with expectations of a rebound in GDP growth by 2026, supported by improvements in soft data and favorable trade policy signals [20][36]. - The report notes that the market's pricing of economic growth may be less optimistic than indicated by the cyclical versus defensive stock performance, as high operating leverage stocks are trading at a significant valuation discount compared to low operating leverage stocks [30][31]. Sector Analysis - The report discusses sector-neutral baskets of economically sensitive stocks, indicating that cyclical stocks have lagged behind defensive stocks year-to-date, suggesting a cautious market sentiment [26][30]. - The valuation for high operating leverage stocks indicates that the market is pricing in downside risks to the economic growth outlook, with a historic valuation discount observed [30][33].