EBSCN·2025-06-09 01:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the copper industry, indicating a positive outlook for future price increases [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism regarding the improvement of macroeconomic expectations leading to an upward trend in copper prices. As of June 6, 2025, the closing price for SHFE copper was 78,930 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.0% increase from May 30, while LME copper closed at 9,671 USD/ton, up 1.83% [1]. - The report highlights that while trade conflicts have eased, their negative impact on the economy has yet to manifest, which may continue to suppress copper price increases. Supply disruptions in copper mining are noted, alongside a weakening demand risk due to reduced export stocking effects and the domestic market entering a low-demand season [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 7.3% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 10.7% [2]. - As of June 6, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 747,000 tons, down 6.1% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 435,000 tons as of June 2, 2025, a decrease of 0.4% [2]. Supply - The report notes that the TC spot price was -42.9 USD/ton as of June 6, 2025, indicating a slight increase of 0.6 USD/ton from the previous week, but remains at a low level historically [3]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,388 RMB/ton as of June 6, 2025, reflecting an increase of 435 RMB/ton from May 30 [2][3]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 76.08% as of June 5, 2025 [3][4]. - The report indicates that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for approximately 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a 2% year-on-year increase in household air conditioner production in April, while refrigerator production decreased by 5% [3][4]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 18% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 6.7% [4]. - As of June 6, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 204,000 lots, reflecting a significant increase and indicating strong market interest [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand. It recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Wanguo Resources [4][5].