光大证券晨会速递-20250609

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The US non-farm payroll data for May exceeded market expectations, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a relatively robust job market [2] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw an increase of 48,000 jobs, significantly higher than the previous month's 29,000, contributing to the stability of the employment data [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with market expectations indicating no rate cuts in June and the first potential cut in September [2] Group 2: Market Strategy - The market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase due to intertwined internal and external factors, with external risks potentially easing [3] - Domestic policies are expected to continue to be proactive, supporting economic recovery, particularly in consumption [3] - The suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the US is likely to maintain high export growth in the short term [3] Group 3: Bond Market Observations - The REITs market showed an upward trend, with the weighted REITs index closing at 142.42 and a weekly return of 1.74% [4] - The convertible bond market continued to recover, with a 1.1% increase in the index for the week, outperforming the equity market [5] - Credit spreads in various sectors showed mixed movements, with coal and steel sectors experiencing an overall increase [6] Group 4: Industry Research - The banking sector is expected to maintain a neutral to loose liquidity state in June, with seasonal credit growth and stable government bond issuance [10] - The petrochemical sector is optimistic about the "three major oil companies" and their high capital expenditure plans, with production growth targets set for 2025 [14] - The steel industry is likely to see profitability recover to historical averages due to new regulatory conditions and supply-side adjustments [12] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - Zhongjian Technology plans to invest 1.402 billion yuan in a high-performance carbon fiber project, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 adjusted upwards [17] - Guokewai aims to integrate its entire industry chain through the acquisition of a majority stake in Zhongxin Ningbo, with projected net profits increasing significantly over the next three years [18]