合成橡胶：短期反弹，中期压力仍偏大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The rating range is [-2, 2], where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, multiple factors including improved macro - sentiment and low valuation drive the synthetic rubber to rebound. In the medium - term, due to the weak demand in the rubber sector and sufficient supply of natural and synthetic rubber, the fundamental pressure is relatively high [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals have weak driving force for synthetic rubber. In the context of low valuation, the spot is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (07 contract) increased from 10,960 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan/ton; the trading volume rose from 99,659 lots to 159,507 lots; the open interest decreased by 1396 lots to 24,880 lots; and the trading value increased by 348,970 ten - thousand yuan to 897,361 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract decreased from 440 to 350; the monthly spread (BR06 - BR07) dropped from 115 to 15. The prices of butadiene in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) increased by 250, 200, and 250 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) increased by 250 yuan/ton to 11,650 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) both increased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 100 and 350 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Fundamentals: The butadiene rubber operating rate decreased by 0.87% to 64.3305%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,285 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 685 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - Butadiene Situation: The Asian butadiene price is stable, and the domestic butadiene price fluctuates around 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton. The butadiene industry operating rate is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to ethylene plant maintenance. Short - term import arrivals have increased. The butadiene procurement volume of butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. The inventory of butadiene producers has slightly increased, and the port inventory has decreased. Overall, butadiene has rigid demand at low prices but lacks fundamental driving force, and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [3]. - Butadiene Rubber Situation: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. The supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. The apparent demand of butadiene rubber remains high this week, and the substitution demand supports the total demand. The butadiene rubber inventory is continuously at a high level year - on - year [3]. - Futures Market: In the short - term, on Thursday, the macro - sentiment improved due to the Sino - US leaders' call, driving the rubber sector to rebound at a low - valuation level. Butadiene rubber, as a low - valuation variety in the rubber sector and with the requirement of warrant cancellation on June 30, had a large rebound. In the medium - term, the main contradiction in the market is the weak demand in the rubber sector, leading to a downward fundamental driving force [3].