商品期货早班车-20250609

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; for silver, considering the increase in London inventory and the change in industrial demand, it is recommended to go short on silver at high prices or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, copper is recommended to be bought at low prices; aluminum is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see; alumina is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 7000 - 7600 yuan, and it is advisable to wait and see; lithium carbonate may be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; polysilicon can consider anti - arbitrage strategies and short - selling on rebounds [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, it is recommended to chase long on the rebar 2510 contract in the short - term; for iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see; for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and see and try to chase long on the coking coal 2509 contract in the short - term [4]. - In the agricultural product market, soybeans are expected to fluctuate; corn futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; sugar is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; cotton is advisable to wait and see; palm oil has no major contradictions currently; eggs and hogs are expected to fluctuate, and apples are advisable to wait and see [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; PVC is advisable to wait and see and sell call options above 4850; PTA can be short - sold on processing fees at high prices; rubber is advisable to use an interval trading strategy; glass is recommended to sell call options above 1250; PP is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; MEG is expected to be strong in the short - term, but long positions should be carefully considered; crude oil should be short - sold at high prices; styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; soda ash is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and call options can be sold; caustic soda is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Commodity Futures 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Market Performance: Spot gold fell by more than 1% last Friday, while spot silver continued its upward trend, rising by more than 1.4% before a slight decline [1]. - News: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8th to 13th and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism; the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 7th consecutive month, with a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces, and the increase rate continues to slow down; Japan's chief trade negotiator and Minister of Economic Revitalization Akera Masaru is going to the US for the fifth round of Japan - US tariff negotiations [1]. - Economic Data: In May, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000, the lowest since February, although higher than market expectations, but the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 95,000; the unemployment rate was 4.2%, with an unexpected increase in wages but a shrinking labor force; US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion, with student loans soaring to a record high of $1.8 trillion; from January to March 2025, the global real estate investment increased by 34% year - on - year, and the real estate investment in Japan exceeded 2 trillion yen, reaching a quarterly record high, a 23% increase compared with the same period last year [1]. - Inventory Data: Domestic gold ETFs flowed in again the previous day. COMEX gold inventory was 1191 tons with little change, SHFE gold inventory was 17 tons with a slight increase, and London's gold inventory in May was 8598 tons; SHFE silver inventory was 1107 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous day, SGE silver inventory decreased by 49 tons to 1347 tons last week, COMEX silver inventory was 15413 tons, a decrease of 13 tons from the previous day, and London's inventory in May increased by more than 500 tons to 23367 tons; India's silver imports in March decreased to about 120 tons. In April, Switzerland's gold imports from the US increased significantly, and the US market continued to outflow [1]. - Operation Suggestion: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, so it is recommended to go long on gold; for silver, considering the increase in London inventory and the change in industrial demand, it is recommended to go short on silver at high prices or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - Copper - Market Performance: On Friday, copper prices fluctuated strongly [2]. - Fundamentals: Copper prices are in a state of strong overseas and weak domestic. The weakening of the US dollar index supports copper prices, but domestic demand has slowed down, the spot premium has weakened, and the structure has weakened. London inventory has continued to decline, with the cancellation ratio exceeding 60%, and the back has reached over $70. In addition, the phone call between Chinese and US leaders has boosted market risk appetite [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy at low prices [2]. - Aluminum - Market Performance: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 0.30% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 20,070 yuan/ton, with a domestic 3 - month spread of 310 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2450/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: In terms of supply, electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity has increased slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of aluminum products has decreased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: The price of alumina is falling, and profits are shifting to the electrolytic aluminum end. Supply may maintain high - load production, while downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the operating rate of some sectors continues to decline. However, low inventory provides support at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see [2][3]. - Alumina - Market Performance: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.43% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2901 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 335 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: In terms of supply, the复产 and new production capacities are continuously being released, and the operating capacity has increased. In terms of demand, electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity is stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: The release of alumina's复产 and new production capacities and the accumulation of social inventory have increased supply pressure. Short - sellers are taking the opportunity to push down prices. In the short term, the game between buyers and sellers has intensified. Under the expectation of overall supply - demand surplus, prices may fluctuate weakly, and technical rebounds should be guarded against during the process. It is advisable to wait and see [3]. - Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Friday, the main 07 contract opened higher and then fluctuated, closing at 7290 yuan/ton, an increase of 155 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The position decreased by 22,773 lots to 161,192 lots. Today, the warehouse receipt decreased by 746 lots to 60,573 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: Last week, the spot price continued to decline, with a narrowing decline. There was no obvious contraction in the supply end, and the number of open furnaces changed little this week. The market is pessimistic about the continuous decline of inventory. On the demand side, the output of polysilicon in June may increase slightly compared with May. Pay attention to the resumption of production and operation of enterprises after the holiday. The output of silicone has increased slightly, and the prices in the industrial chain have stopped falling. The operating rate of aluminum alloys is relatively stable [3]. - Operation Suggestion: In the short term, domestic macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly. When the valuation is low, it is easily disturbed by market sentiment. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate between 7000 - 7600 yuan. It is advisable to wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On Friday, the main 2507 contract closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the output in June is high, and the expectation of production reduction is weak. SMM expects the output of lithium carbonate in June to be 78,875 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87%. The index of imported spodumene concentrate fell further to $626/ton yesterday, and the profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene has been greatly repaired, with a weak expectation of production reduction. The output this week was 17,471 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.37%. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, and the long - term expectation is pessimistic. The consumption of new energy vehicles is lower than expected. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%, while the wholesale sales in April were 1.14 million, a year - on - year increase of 42%. The consumption has recovered month - on - month, but the growth rate is still slow. The consumption electronics market is pessimistic due to the exhaustion of national subsidies in various regions. The demand for energy storage has been released in advance due to the "new - old cut - off" in Document No. 136, and the demand expectation in the second half of the year has weakened significantly. Social inventory is high and showing an upward trend, reaching 132,432 tons (+861 tons), and the warehouse receipt on Friday decreased slightly to 33,309 lots (-12 lots) [3]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the strong expectation of demand supports prices to fluctuate. The significant repair of lithium salt production profits and the weak reality of rapid production increase make it highly likely that there will still be a surplus in June. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of demand; in the long term, the key to reversing the surplus pattern of lithium salts still lies in the supply side. In the short term, affected by capital and the macro - environment, prices may deviate from fundamentals and show a slight rebound. Short - term profit - taking can be considered, and then short - sell distant - month contracts at high prices [3]. - Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Friday, the main 07 contract opened higher and then fluctuated downward, closing at 34,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The position decreased by 623 lots to 65,179 lots. The 06 contract has entered the delivery month, and liquidity has weakened. Currently, the contracts still maintain a contango structure. The warehouse receipt has increased to 2460 lots (7380 tons) [3]. - Fundamentals: Last week, the spot price remained stable. On the supply side, the output in the first week of June decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of production resumption in June, so the output may increase slightly. The industry still has nearly 270,000 tons of inventory. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule data has recovered, but the overall procurement of polysilicon is limited. A photovoltaic industry conference will be held in Shanghai next week. Pay attention to the communication at the conference [3]. - Operation Suggestion: This week, the warehouse receipt has been increasing continuously, and the logic of warehouse receipt game has weakened. If the warehouse receipt registration exceeds expectations, an anti - arbitrage strategy between 07 and distant - month contracts can be considered. For a single - side position, if there is no further production reduction news, a short - sell on the rebound of the 07 contract can be considered [3]. 3.2 Black Industry - Rebar - Market Performance: The main rebar 2510 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 2965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand of steel may deteriorate seasonally. The supply and demand of building materials are both weak, but benefiting from low production, the inventory pressure is small; the demand for plates has deteriorated slightly. In the environment of the withdrawal of national subsidies, domestic demand may further weaken, but direct exports remain high. Overall, the supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, and the contradiction is not significant. Steel futures have been at a discount for two consecutive weeks, and the margin has widened. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment. It is expected that steel futures prices will fluctuate strongly this week [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to chase long on the rebar 2510 contract in the short - term. The reference range for RB10 is 2950 - 3000 [4]. - Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main iron ore 2509 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at $704/ton, a decrease of $4.5/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand of iron ore remain moderately strong. According to the data of the Steel Union, the pig iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month but still maintains a certain year - on - year increase. After the third round of price cuts, the profit margin of steel mills has expanded, and subsequent production will be mainly stable; the supply is in line with seasonal rules, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The supply and demand of iron ore are moderately strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, with a neutral valuation. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment. It is expected that iron ore futures prices will fluctuate strongly this week [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see. The reference range for I09 is 700 - 720 [4]. - Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main coking coal 2509 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: Pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 million tons to 2.418 million tons month - on - month, with a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons. The profit margin of steel mills has narrowed, and subsequent production will be mainly stable. The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round of price cuts has been proposed. In terms of supply, the inventory at each link is differentiated. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants remain at a relatively low level in the same period of history, while the inventory at the mine mouth, ports and other links continues to remain at a historical high. At the same time, production has decreased month - on - month, and overall supply and demand are still relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. Futures are basically at par with the spot, and the forward curve is gradually flattening. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see and try to chase long on the coking coal 2509 contract in the short - term. The reference range for JM09 is 770 - 810 [4]. 3.3 Agricultural Product Market - Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans continued to rise, digesting the optimistic expectation of China - US trade [5]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply in South America is loose in the short - term, while the sowing of new US soybeans is in the later stage. On the demand side, South America dominates in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand for US soybeans is seasonally weak [5]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate; in China, there will be more soybean arrivals in the later stage, with a weak basis, and the single - side price will follow the international market. Attention should be paid to later trade policies and US soybean production [5]. - Corn - Market Performance: The corn 2507 contract rose