Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The historical review of global trade indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may become more critical tools in trade confrontations, potentially replacing tariffs [1][7] - Domestic foreign trade enterprises anticipate that the US-China trade negotiations will be fraught with challenges, necessitating ongoing risk management regarding exports to the US [1][7] - If tariffs fail to achieve their intended competitive objectives, the US government may resort to non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation, drawing parallels to past trade conflicts with Japan and Germany [1][7] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - The short-term outlook suggests that the RMB central parity may gradually decline to the range of 7.17-7.18, with expectations of dual-directional fluctuations in the USD/CNY exchange rate [2][9] - The market is forming a consistent appreciation expectation for the RMB, driven by a weakening US dollar index and increasing demand for RMB-denominated financial assets [9][10] - Risks of "panic settlement" may arise if export enterprises respond to a strengthening RMB and a declining dollar index, potentially leading to concentrated demand for currency exchange [9][10] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Insights - The current market for urban investment ABS is characterized by a predominance of enterprise ABS products, with a weighted average coupon rate of approximately 3.25%, which is lower than the overall market for urban investment bonds [15][16] - The urban investment ABS market shows a significant mid-to-long-term characteristic, aligning with the cash flow characteristics of underlying assets such as infrastructure projects [15][16] - The distribution of urban investment ABS by underlying asset type indicates that fee income rights and debt rights ABS dominate the market, with a focus on stable cash flows from public utility fees [15][16] Group 4: Trade Policy and Economic Indicators - The recent US trade data shows a significant decline in imports, indicating a potential slowdown in the "import rush" effect driven by tariff policies [13][14] - The US consumer confidence index has improved, suggesting a resilient economic outlook, while inflation indicators remain stable, reflecting cautious monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [13][14] - The ongoing legal challenges to Trump's tariff policies highlight the uncertainty in global trade dynamics, with potential implications for future trade negotiations and tariff implementations [13][14]
东吴证券晨会纪要-20250609