Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Plastic - Market expectations are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the fundamentals maintain a pattern of high production capacity, low profit, and weak demand. It is expected that the plastic 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7100 [4]. PP - Inventory accumulates, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price, but the supply - side benefits are offset, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulation exerts great pressure on the market. It is expected that PP2509 will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the short term, with a reference range of 6850 - 7200 [6]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week. LDPE average price was 9216.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%. HDPE average price was 8062.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7414.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%. The LLDPE South China basis was 348.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 19.10%, and the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27) [4][8]. Fundamental Changes - Cost and Profit: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PE was - 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - Supply: The production start - up rate of Chinese polyethylene was 77.41%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 59.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. The maintenance loss this week was 12.04 tons, a decrease of 1.47 tons from last week [4]. - Demand: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 12.89%, a decrease of 0.09% from last week. The PE packaging film start - up rate was 48.89%, an increase of 0.30% from last week, and the PE pipe start - up rate was 30.83%, a decrease of 1.00% from last week [4]. - Inventory: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 58.27 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons from last week [4]. Key Data Tracking - Month - spread: The 1 - 6 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 8 yuan/ton (a change of 35 yuan/ton); the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27); the 9 - 1 month spread was 29 yuan/ton (- 8) [15]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of different varieties and regions of polyethylene showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [16][17]. - Cost: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [19]. - Profit: It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE and coal - based PE will run weakly [22]. - Supply: The production start - up rate increased, and the output increased slightly. There were many maintenance losses this week [25]. - 2025 Production Plan: Many companies have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 [27]. - Maintenance Statistics: Multiple enterprises had equipment maintenance, with different parking and start - up times [28]. - Demand: The agricultural film peak season has passed, and the start - up rates of packaging film and pipes are average. The market trading atmosphere is light [29]. - Downstream Production Ratio: The production ratio of linear film is the highest, and there are differences between the current ratios of some products and the annual average levels [33]. - Inventory: The social inventory of plastic enterprises decreased [35]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 5254 hands, a decrease of 5 hands from last week [42]. PP Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The polypropylene market first fell and then rose this week, with the price center of gravity moving slightly downward and the amplitude narrowing [46]. Fundamental Changes - Cost and Profit: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PP was 31.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.54 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PP was 914.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.95 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - Supply: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.44%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 75.83 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 7.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.57% [6]. - Demand: The average downstream start - up rate was 50.01% (- 0.28%). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 44.70% (- 0.50%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.41% (+ 0.65%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 56.09% (- 0.08%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.13% (- 0.14%) [6]. - Inventory: The domestic polypropylene inventory was 60.51 tons (+ 9.36%), with an overall increase in inventory pressure. The inventory of two major oil companies increased by 11.03% month - on - month, the inventory of traders increased by 8.45% month - on - month, and the port inventory increased by 2.31% month - on - month [6]. Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price: The prices of different PP products and related products showed different changes [47]. - Basis: On June 6, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 7380 yuan/ton (- 13.33), with a slight month - on - month increase. The PP basis was 455 yuan/ton (- 63), and the basis strengthened. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the month spread widened [49]. - Month - spread: The 1 - 5 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 9 yuan/ton (a change of 24 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (1); the 9 - 1 month spread was 48 yuan/ton (- 25) [56]. - Cost: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [58]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP and coal - based PP decreased [60]. - Supply: The start - up rate decreased, but the output of pellets and powder increased [64]. - 2025 Second - Quarter Production Plan: Multiple enterprises have new production capacity plans in the second quarter of 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 427.5 [68]. - Maintenance Statistics: Many enterprises' production lines have long - term or short - term maintenance, with many of the start - up times undetermined [70]. - Demand: The overall downstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the start - up rates of different industries showed different changes [72]. - Demand (Product Proportion): The proportions of different PP products showed different changes [75]. - Import and Export Profit: The import profit of polypropylene was - 569.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 26.34 US dollars/ton from last week. The export profit was 6.78 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.52 US dollars/ton from last week. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [76]. - Inventory: The domestic polypropylene inventory increased, and the inventories of different sectors all increased. The finished product inventory of large plastic - weaving enterprises decreased, and the BOPP raw material inventory decreased [78][81]. - Warehouse Receipts: On June 6, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 4885 hands, a decrease of 149 hands from last week [85].
长江期货聚烯烃周报-20250609
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-06-09 02:22