燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：设施维护、高温天气带动欧洲、美国气价上涨，国内气价平稳-20250609

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that facility maintenance and high temperatures have driven up gas prices in Europe and the US, while domestic gas prices remain stable [6][11] - It anticipates a gradual recovery in demand, with a focus on cost optimization for gas companies and the continued adjustment of pricing mechanisms [50] Price Tracking - As of June 6, 2025, gas prices have changed week-on-week as follows: US HH +1.8%, European TTF +8.5%, East Asia JKM +2.4%, China LNG ex-factory +0.1%, and China LNG CIF +4% [11][13] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.5% week-on-week to 1,124 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 1.5% to 962 billion cubic feet per day [16] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that the average natural gas consumption in China decreased by 1.3% year-on-year to 1,393 billion cubic feet in the first four months of 2025, attributed to a warmer winter in 2024 [24][30] - In Europe, natural gas consumption for January-February 2025 was 115.5 billion cubic meters, up 11% year-on-year [17] Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 63% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [37] - The report indicates that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in city gas companies [37] Important Events - The US gas import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [44][46] - The European Commission has voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets to avoid supply shortages and price spikes [49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, such as New Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy [50][51] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, like Jiufeng Energy and New Energy [51]