中原期货晨会纪要-20250609

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple well - known foreign institutions have raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy and target points for the stock index, expressing optimism about the Chinese economy and Chinese assets [7]. - From June to August, investment should focus more on the fundamentals of enterprises. For specific sector allocations, it is recommended to focus on areas such as traditional capacity clearance, the rise of new consumption, and high - growth industries [8]. - The Hong Kong stock market may remain volatile in the short term but has the potential to recover in the long term [8]. - The domestic Shanghai silver futures price has reached a record high due to the strong international silver price, and precious metals have seen an upward trend [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry - On June 9, 2025, among chemical products, the prices of most products changed compared to the previous day. For example, the price of coking coal increased by 21.0 to 778.00, with a growth rate of 2.774%; the price of coke decreased by 6.0 to 1,336.00, with a decline rate of - 0.447% [4]. 2. Agricultural Products - On June 9, 2025, among agricultural products, the prices also had fluctuations. For instance, the price of No. 1 yellow soybean increased by 9.0 to 4,147.00, with a growth rate of 0.217%; the price of rapeseed oil decreased by 12.0 to 9,140.00, with a decline rate of - 0.131% [4]. 3. Macro News - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on June 10 to introduce policies on improving people's livelihood [7]. - From January to April, the added - value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the operating income reached 25.8 trillion yuan [7]. - In the first trading week of June, the three major A - share stock indexes fluctuated and rose. Institutions suggest focusing on sectors such as traditional capacity clearance, new consumption, and high - growth industries [8]. - A new batch of 19 national backbone cold - chain logistics bases have been included in the construction list, and the number has reached 105, covering all 31 provinces [8]. - Relevant associations have jointly signed a cooperation agreement to establish a Yangtze River Delta new - energy vehicle export base [8]. - Since June, affected by the strong international silver price, the domestic Shanghai silver futures price has reached a record high [9]. - China Pingmei Shenma Group's domestic first - set 100,000 - ton/year Aisi - installation device has been put into production, breaking the bottleneck in the nylon 66 raw material supply [9]. 4. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 4.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut: The peanut spot market is generally stable. The short - term futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [12]. - Oil: The oil market lacks positive support, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. - Sugar: It is recommended to short on rallies with 5750 as the resistance level. Be wary of price recovery risks [12]. - Corn: It is recommended to wait and see. If it effectively breaks through the 2340 pressure level, a small long - position can be tried. Be cautious about the impact of wheat listing and import policy changes [12]. - Pig: The pig market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures market is also weak [13]. - Egg: The egg spot price is stable, and the futures market is weak. The mid - term capacity pressure continues to be released [13]. 4.2 Energy and Chemical Industry - Urea: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunities for a phased rebound [13]. - Caustic Soda: The fundamentals lack strong support, and the 2509 contract should be treated with a bearish view [13]. - Coking Coal: Supply continues to decline, but inventory pressure remains. The short - term double - coking market is stable and in a low - level shock [13]. 4.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The inventory situation is controllable, and consumption shows resilience. The price has rebounded, but the upward momentum may be insufficient [16]. - Alumina: The spot price is firm, and the 2509 contract may fluctuate around 3000 points. There is still medium - term over - supply pressure [16]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The fundamentals have weakened, and the price shows a low - level weak shock [16]. - Ferroalloy: The market is in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [18]. - Lithium Carbonate: Maintain a bearish view on rallies, but be cautious about the technical rebound risk at the 60000 mark [18]. 4.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and adopt rolling operations. The 6 - month contract has a low probability of breaking through the previous platform, and selling straddles can be considered to earn time value [18]. - Stock Index Options: Trend investors should focus on defense. Volatility investors can buy wide - straddles to bet on increased volatility after the decline in volatility [19].