玻璃:盘面底部抬升,短线谨慎做空
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-06-09 02:32
- Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to cautiously short sell. The 09 contract is recommended for either observation or short - selling with caution, considering the pressure range of 1,015 - 1,035 and monitoring whether the bottom - rising trend continues [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures rebounded from the bottom, mainly due to the cost - logic linkage caused by the sharp rise in coking coal futures, the profit - taking of short - side funds and bottom - fishing by long - side funds after the contract hit a new low, and the rumor of significant production cuts in Shahe. However, the fundamental factors such as supply and inventory of glass have not improved. The traditional off - season and the rainy season this week will still affect downstream demand. Technically, the upward breakthrough is insufficient, and it still faces the pressure test at the 1,000 mark, with a possible subsequent correction [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 02 - 03. Market Review - Spot Price: As of June 6, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,160 yuan/ton in North China (-20), 1,070 yuan/ton in Central China (-30), and 1,280 yuan/ton in East China (-20). The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 997 yuan/ton last Friday, down 12 for the week [9][10] - Price Difference: As of June 6, the futures price of soda ash was 1,212 yuan/ton, and that of glass was 997 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 215 yuan/ton (-3). The basis of the 09 contract was 33 yuan/ton (-32), and the 09 - 01 spread was -57 yuan/ton (+7) [11][16] 04. Profit - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,598 yuan/ton (-6), and the gross profit was -318 yuan/ton (-14) [17] - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,143 yuan/ton (-5), and the gross profit was 17 yuan/ton (-15) [20] - Petroleum Coke Process: The cost was 1,208 yuan/ton (-6), and the gross profit was -138 yuan/ton (-24) [20] 05. Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 159,255 tons/day (+50), with 224 production lines in operation. Two production lines were cold - repaired at the end of the month, and two were ignited and restarted last week, resulting in a basically flat daily melting volume [21][22] 06. Inventory - As of June 6, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,975.4 million weight boxes (+209.2). Among them, North China's inventory was 1,005.1 million weight boxes (-125.9), Central China's was 820 million weight boxes (+54.2), East China's was 1,593.5 million weight boxes (+23.5), South China's was 1,060.3 million weight boxes (+8.2), Southwest China's was 1,300.3 million weight boxes (+41.3), Shahe's factory inventory was 308 million weight boxes (+37), and Hubei's factory inventory was 571 million weight boxes (+43) [34] 07. Deep - Processing - The sales - to - production ratio of float glass last week was 82.22% (-16.58%). On June 6, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.8% (-2.4%). At the end of May, the available order days for glass deep - processing were 10.35 days (-0.05) [36] 08 - 09. Demand - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of float glass last week was 1,027 million weight boxes, a weekly decrease of 211 [46] - Automobile: In April, China's automobile production was 2.619 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.387 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.213 million. Sales were 2.59 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.325 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.231 million [46] - New - Energy Automobile: In April, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 0.905 million, with a penetration rate of 51.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% [46] - Real Estate: In April, the completed area of real estate was 25.8758 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 28%. The new construction area was 48.3938 million square meters (-22%), the construction area was 66.0961 million square meters (-27%), and the commercial housing sales area was 63.9239 million square meters (-3%). From May 25 to June 1, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.14 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%. In April, the real estate development investment was 782.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [51] 10 - 13. Cost - Side - Soda Ash - Spot Price: As of June 6, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,450 yuan/ton in North China (-50), 1,400 yuan/ton in East China (-40), 1,350 yuan/ton in Central China (-50), and 1,600 yuan/ton in South China (-25). The futures price of the soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,212 yuan/ton last Friday (+9). The basis of the Central China 09 contract was 138 yuan/ton (-59) [59] - Profit: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,438 yuan/ton (-5), with a gross profit of 50 yuan/ton (-17); the cost of the joint - production process was 1,665 yuan/ton (+30), with a gross profit of 178 yuan/ton (-37) [60] - Production and Inventory: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 704,100 tons (a monthly increase of 19,000), including 382,200 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly increase of 12,400) and 321,900 tons of light soda ash (a monthly increase of 6,600). The loss was 167,600 tons (a monthly decrease of 19,000). At the end of last week, the exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts were 4,273 (+2,582). As of June 6, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.627 million tons (a monthly increase of 24,700), including 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly increase of 46,300) and 790,000 tons of light soda ash (a monthly decrease of 21,600) [76] - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 351,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 56,600; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 350,200 tons, a weekly increase of 20,400. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 99.62%, a monthly decrease of 8.04%. In April, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 24.2 days [79]