无需纠结本月是否再次开展买断式逆回购

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the central bank's net withdrawal of 67.17 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase last week, the money market remained loose. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 4.5 BP to 1.41% compared to the end of May. The large - scale purchase of short - term Treasury bonds by state - owned banks amplified the market's expectation of the central bank restarting Treasury bond purchases, which was the main catalyst for the bond market's strength last week [3][84]. - The outright reverse repurchase is carried out once a month in principle. The change in the announcement method has improved policy transparency. Even if it is carried out only once, market liquidity is expected to remain abundant in the short term, and the central bank has various tools to adjust liquidity. There is no need to worry about whether another outright reverse repurchase will be carried out within the month [3][85]. - In terms of institutional behavior, rural commercial banks continued to take profits, while funds became the largest buyers. The cost of adding positions in 7 - 10 - year Treasury bonds for brokers and funds has gradually diverged from that of rural commercial banks [3][86]. - In June, the strategy of giving priority to defense remains unchanged, but left - hand side layout can be gradually carried out. With the approaching peak of inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) maturities in June, it is recommended to allocate liquid assets and gradually consider extending the duration [3][87]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Matters - In May, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity. The production index was above the critical point, while the new order, raw material inventory, and employment indexes were below it [6]. - On June 5, 2025, the central bank announced a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation for June 6, with a term of 3 months. The change in the announcement method improved policy transparency [7]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends - From June 3 to 6, 2025, the central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 67.17 billion yuan. The end of the cross - month effect and the early tender offer of the outright reverse repurchase pushed the fund price closer to the policy rate. The expected maturity of open - market operations from June 10 to 13 will withdraw 93.09 billion yuan [9][10]. - Last week, the money market was generally loose, with overnight fund prices below 1.5%. As of June 6, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.448%, 1.551%, 1.412%, and 1.532% respectively, showing a decline compared to May 30 [11]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situation - In the primary market, last week, the net financing of inter - bank CDs was - 8.036 billion yuan. City commercial banks were the main issuers. The price - raising behavior of state - owned and joint - stock banks improved, but city and rural commercial banks continued to raise CD issuance prices. The upcoming peak of CD maturities in the next three weeks may increase CD issuance [18][19]. - In the secondary market, due to the early tender offer of the outright reverse repurchase, the yields of inter - bank CDs of all maturities declined last week. For example, the 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yields decreased by 0.58 BP, 6.00 BP, 4.75 BP, 4.00 BP, and 4.00 BP respectively [23]. 3. Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply of Treasury bonds accelerated significantly last week, with the issuance of 30 - year and 50 - year special Treasury bonds. As of June 6, the cumulative net financing of various Treasury bonds and local bonds in 2025 was about 3 trillion yuan and 3.73 trillion yuan respectively, significantly higher than the average in the same period from 2021 - 2024. The issuance rhythm of local bonds has gradually slowed down compared to Treasury bonds [27]. - In the secondary market, the interest rate market showed a bull - steepening trend last week. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds decreased by - 6.81 BP, - 7.99 BP, - 4.44 BP, - 4.90 BP, - 3.30 BP, and - 4.00 BP respectively. The spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bond yields widened from 20.94 BP to 24.45 BP [27][39]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - The average daily leveraged trading volume in the market in the past month was about 7 trillion yuan, and the market leverage ratio may have increased compared to April. State - owned banks significantly increased their holdings of Treasury bonds with maturities of less than 5 years, rural commercial banks continued to take profits on Treasury bonds with maturities of less than 10 years but with reduced intensity, while the net buying intensity of brokers and insurance companies weakened, and funds significantly increased their holdings [56][65]. - In April 2025, the overall institutional leverage ratio in the inter - bank market decreased slightly but remained at a comparable level. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions were about 109.26%, 185.03%, and 132.65% respectively [56]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 1.25% week - on - week, the wire rod futures price remained flat, the cathode copper futures price increased by 0.65%, the cement price index remained flat, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased by 1.19%. The CCFI index increased by 3.34% and the BDI index increased by 24.79% week - on - week [81]. - In terms of food prices, the pork wholesale price decreased by 1.82% and the vegetable wholesale price increased by 0.23% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased by 12.22% and 2.47% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.18 last week [81]. 6. Market Outlook - The money market will remain loose in the short term, and the central bank's attitude of caring for the market will not change. There is no need to worry about whether another outright reverse repurchase will be carried out within the month [3][85]. - In June, the strategy of giving priority to defense remains unchanged. With the approaching peak of NCD maturities, it is recommended to allocate liquid assets and gradually consider extending the duration, such as choosing the active bonds of 10 - year or 30 - year Treasury bonds [3][87].