华龙期货螺纹周报-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black sector stopped falling and rebounded last week driven by coking coal. The decline in rebar production was significant, and the inflection point of steel supply is approaching. However, the fundamentals still need to be repaired. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [5][34] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price Analysis - As of June 6, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,140 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [10] Important Market Information - On the evening of June 5, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Both sides agreed to implement the Geneva agreement and strengthen cooperation [14] Supply - Side Situation - As of the week of the report, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.06 percentage points; the average daily hot metal output was 2.418 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 60,500 tons. The average含税 cost of billets in Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills was 2,862 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 27 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 38 yuan/ton [5][32] Demand - Side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the purchasing manager's index in the steel distribution industry was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [21] Inventory - Side Situation - The rebar inventory in steel mills was 1.8486 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons; the social inventory was 3.8562 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,700 tons. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 13.6381 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,900 tons [33] Fundamental Analysis - In late May, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.091 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9%. On June 6, Shandong's mainstream steel mills lowered the purchase price of coke. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2669 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 398,900 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.1399 million tons, a decrease of 1.269 million tons [32] 后市展望 - The black sector stopped falling and rebounded last week driven by coking coal. The decline in rebar production was significant, and the inflection point of steel supply is approaching. However, the fundamentals still need to be repaired. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [34] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [6][34]