镍不锈钢早报：成本端仍有坍塌可能，维持区间滚动做空-20250609

Report 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Nickel: Rolling short selling - Stainless steel: Hold [1] 2. Core View - The cost side may still collapse, and it is recommended to maintain interval rolling short selling. The main operating range is between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range is between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan. [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said that Fed officials may focus more on the unemployment rate than employment growth when assessing whether labor demand is slowing. As long as the unemployment rate remains at the current level, the Fed will not necessarily be worried about the slowdown in employment growth. [1] Supply - Nickel ore: The Philippines has completely emerged from the rainy season, and both the domestic arrival volume and the Philippine shipping volume have increased significantly. The nickel ore price has seasonally weakened, leading to a decline in the costs of all links in the industrial chain. - Ferronickel: The domestic production of ferronickel has slightly decreased, but the production in Indonesia has still increased rapidly, with a year - on - year increase of more than 30% and a month - on - month increase of more than 10%. The total supply of domestic imports and ferronickel remains high and in surplus. - Electrolytic nickel: The month - on - month decline in electrolytic nickel production is minimal, but the year - on - year increase exceeds 45%. The total supply of electrolytic nickel, including imports, is high. [1] Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support provided by the downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 126,700 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton. - Due to the large number of integrated nickel - iron and stainless - steel manufacturers in the industrial chain, they can use the nickel - iron profit to make up for the stainless - steel loss. However, since May, the nickel - iron profit has rapidly shrunk and once faced losses, which may affect the stainless - steel production. Overall, the demand is still weak. [2] Conclusion - The main operating range is between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan; the core operating range is between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan. Operation Suggestion - Close previous short positions in batches; roll short after the price rebounds. [2] Report 2: Shanghai Zinc Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish [3] 2. Core View - The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the peak demand season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal expectations, so the overall view is bearish. [4] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - Shuka Minerals has obtained the temporary unconditional authorization from the Zambia Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (CCPC) to acquire 100% of the equity of Zambia's Leopard Exploration and Mining (LEM), which owns the Kabwe zinc mine. [3] Supply - During the narrow - range fluctuation of zinc prices, the profit per ton of mining enterprises is basically maintained at about 4,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees in the north and south have returned to 3,500 yuan/ton. Whether it is an integrated enterprise or a pure smelting enterprise, they will maintain high production under the current situation of increasing total supply at the mine end. The supply of zinc ingots is generally loose. [3] Demand - Galvanizing: The production capacity has expanded, but the capacity utilization rate and output are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The inventory of steel mills is low, and social inventory has begun to accumulate. It is speculated that galvanizing manufacturers are also pessimistic about terminal demand, and the short - term demand for zinc ingots has declined. - Zinc oxide: The operating rate is still rising, mainly due to seasonal demand, but the upward space is limited. The production end has no positive support, and there are signs of further contraction in downstream production. - Die - casting alloy: The operating rate has exceeded the same period last year, with both year - on - year and month - on - month increases, and the weekly output has increased significantly. However, the operating rate of downstream enterprises is expected to decline. In general, the short - term demand for zinc is difficult to improve significantly, but there is still some resilience. [4] Conclusion - The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the peak demand season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal expectations, so the overall view is bearish. [4] Operation Suggestion - Short with a light position. [5]