煤焦：焦价调降落地，盘面反弹谨慎对待

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Short - term market sentiment has warmed up, supporting the rebound of coal prices. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high. The rebound should be treated with caution [3] Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Last week, short - covering and news stimulation on the coal supply side led to a phased bottom - out rebound in coal and coke futures prices. But the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the spot market remains weak. The third round of coke price cuts by steel mills last week was officially implemented, with the decline in this round increasing to 70 - 75 yuan/ton, and the cumulative decline in the three rounds since mid - May reaching 170 - 185 yuan/ton. Coking coal prices also remained weakly stable [2] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Coal mine production continued a slight downward trend, but there was no large - scale production suspension or reduction. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 189.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 7.8 million tons year - on - year. Some mines in Shanxi stopped production due to safety reasons for about 15 days. However, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end has not been relieved. The raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 6.708 billion tons, an increase of 297 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 3.357 billion tons year - on - year; the clean coal inventory was 4.807 billion tons, an increase of 77 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.04 billion tons year - on - year [2] - Demand side: Coal and coke demand continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate was slow. The average daily pig iron output of steel mills last week dropped to 2.418 billion tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 6.05 million tons compared with the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills narrowed slightly, leading to a decline in start - up rates, which generally offset the recent production cuts of coal mines. There was still insufficient driving force for the coal price rebound in terms of fundamentals [2] Outlook - Pay attention to the changes in the start - up of steel mill blast furnaces and the customs clearance of imported coal [3]