“核心区+好产品”率先止跌回稳，重申关注中线布局

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The core areas and quality properties are stabilizing, gradually being validated and accepted by the market. Despite a 33.4% month-on-month decline in new home transactions in the top 50 cities due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the supply-demand dynamics in core urban areas are improving. The combination of limited supply and high-quality housing is expected to lead to a short-term recovery in transactions [3] - Short-term structural recovery is anticipated to continue, with competition focusing on product strength and land acquisition capabilities in the medium term. Concerns include limited supply in core areas and potential price wars as quality housing supply increases. However, there is no need for excessive worry in the short term due to the high sales scale and profit margins of major developers having already declined significantly [3] - The report emphasizes a mid-term focus on companies with lighter historical burdens, optimized inventory structures, and strong product capabilities. The report suggests that companies like Jianfa International Group and China Resources Land are expected to outperform the market significantly [3] Market Monitoring - Transaction volume in the top 50 cities for new homes was 15,000 units, down 33.4% month-on-month, while second-hand homes in the top 20 cities also saw a decline of 23.5%. Year-on-year, new home transactions decreased by 43.1% [3][9] - Inventory slightly decreased by 0.4%, with a de-stocking cycle of 18.3 months, indicating a need for ongoing observation of market trends [11] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 0.86% increase in stock prices, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.88%. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 39.77 times, placing it in the 96.13 percentile over the past five years [14][19] - This week, the issuance of domestic real estate bonds reached 8.1 billion yuan, with a net financing amount showing a slight increase [12]