宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250609

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PX futures weakened this week, with the spot price down 2.9% week-on-week to $818/ton CFR by Friday. The weekly average price also decreased by 1.8% to $826/ton CFR. The market sentiment was bearish due to poor May PMI data in China and new short - fiber production cuts in polyester, though overall polyester开工 remained stable. Despite increased supply from some PX units restarting and ramping up, PX is expected to be in a de - stocking phase in the next few months. The CFR China price of PX on June 6 was $818/ton, and with international oil prices fluctuating, there was insufficient cost guidance for PX. The domestic PX operating rate recovered to over 85%, and with some maintenance schedules postponed, there was no obvious fundamental driver [2]. - The PTA market rose due to improved market confidence from the China - US leaders' call and PTA spot de - stocking. However, with the end of the PTA maintenance peak, new capacity planned for trial runs, and more planned restarts than maintenance this week, PTA supply will increase in the month. Although most polyester products are in theoretical production losses, the announced polyester unit maintenance plans are limited, and the rigid demand is expected to be stable. In June, the domestic weaving market continued to weaken, while there were small - volume US orders. Overall, PTA prices are expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to whether new PTA capacity in East China will start trial runs in early June [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was trading in the range of 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The futures of polyester raw materials and bottle - chips fluctuated slightly, and the supply - side quotes were mostly stable. The downstream buying enthusiasm was low, and the market negotiation atmosphere was average. The bottle - chip operating rate may decline, and the overall market supply is sufficient. The downstream is digesting previous inventory, and the market trading is light [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will trade in a range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On June 6, 2025, the WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $64.58/barrel, up 1.91%; the Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $66.47/barrel, up 1.73%. The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $560.50/ton, up 0.60%. The spot price of isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $697.50/ton, down 0.14%. The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $818.00/ton, down 0.28% [1]. - PTA Price: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4652 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 4672 yuan/ton, up 0.95%. The near - month contract closing price was 4888 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the settlement price was 4894 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4884 yuan/ton, up 1.03%. The CCFEI PTA domestic price index was 4897 yuan/ton, up 1.26%, and the CCFEI PTA foreign price index on June 5 was $615.00/ton, down 1.44%. The near - far month spread was 222 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the basis was 245 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan [1]. - PX Price: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6556 yuan/ton, up 0.24%; the settlement price was 6586 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The near - month contract closing and settlement prices were both 7000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic PX spot price was 6592 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The PX CFR China Taiwan spot price was $819.00/ton, down 0.24%, and the PX FOB Korea spot price was $794.00/ton, down 0.25%. The PXN spread was $257.50/ton, down 2.17%, and the PX - MX spread was $120.50/ton, down 1.09%. The basis was 36 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan [1]. - PR Price: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 5908 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The near - month contract closing and settlement prices were both 5910 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 5990 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The basis in the East China market was 0 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; in the South China market, it was 90 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [1]. - Downstream Price: On June 6, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8925 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6490 yuan/ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5885 yuan/ton, up 0.60%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 84.52%, up 3.07 percentage points. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA plants was 80.84%, unchanged; of polyester plants was 89.59%, down 0.25 percentage points; of bottle - chip plants was 82.46%, down 1.36 percentage points; of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.09%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On June 6, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 44.00%, down 12 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 71.00%, up 7 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 52.00%, up 3 percentage points [1]. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2].