豆类油脂早报-20250609

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of soybean meal futures will follow the price of US soybean futures and continue the phased rebound trend, and the overall market is expected to be volatile and strong. The price of palm oil futures will be volatile and strong as well [6][8]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Time - period Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [6][7] - Core Logic: Optimistic signals in Sino - US trade relations enhance the expectation of good US soybean exports. Entering the weather - sensitive period, potential extreme weather risks in US soybean - producing areas this summer make US soybean prices easy to rise and hard to fall. The trading logic of the domestic soybean meal market mainly depends on import costs, so short - term soybean meal futures prices will follow the US soybean futures prices [6]. Palm Oil (P) - Time - period Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [7][8] - Core Logic: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release monthly data on June 10. Expected moderate growth in production will push up inventory. There is export competition between Indonesia and Malaysia. In China, increased palm oil purchases will supplement supply and raise inventory. So the short - term palm oil futures prices will be volatile and strong [8]. Other Information - For soybean meal 2509, factors affecting the market include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - For soybean oil 2509, influencing factors are US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]. - For palm 2509, factors are Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7].