有色金属基础周报：宏观影响交织，有色金属整体继续震荡运行-20250609

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market continues to oscillate overall under the influence of complex macro factors. Each metal has its own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, production capacity changes, and inventory levels [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Market Analysis Copper - Trend Status: High - level oscillation [3]. - Market View: Tariffs increase the impact on copper prices, and Sino - US presidential calls bring positive expectations. Although supply disturbances and low TC support copper prices, downstream consumption is weakening, and the upside and downside of copper prices are both limited [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Range trading within 77500 - 79500 [3]. Aluminum - Trend Status: Continued weak oscillation [3]. - Market View: Mining disturbances in Guinea have not directly affected the current abundant supply of bauxite, but the impact will be reflected in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, while downstream demand is weakening, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions [3]. Zinc - Trend Status: Range oscillation [3]. - Market View: Macro factors are negative, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to remain abundant. Traditional peak consumption seasons have passed, and downstream demand is weakening. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 22000 - 23000 [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Range trading [3]. Lead - Trend Status: Weak oscillation [3]. - Market View: Supply and demand are both weak, and the overall market consumption is poor. The market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Range trading within 16200 - 17000 [3]. Nickel - Trend Status: Stabilized and rebounded [3]. - Market View: Macro factors are negative, but the cost of nickel is firm, and the downside is limited. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Range trading. The reference range for the main contract is 118000 - 125000 yuan/ton [3]. Stainless Steel - Trend Status: Oscillated weakly [3]. - Market View: Entering the traditional off - season, downstream demand is only for rigid needs. The cost of stainless - steel enterprises is inverted, and social inventory is high. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Range trading. The reference range for the main contract is 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [3]. Tin - Trend Status: Bottomed out and rebounded [4]. - Market View: Raw material supply is tight, and the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. Although the supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, the impact of US tariff policies on downstream consumption needs attention. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Range trading. The reference range for the SHFE tin 07 contract is 255000 - 275000 yuan/ton [4]. Industrial Silicon - Trend Status: Stabilized at a low level, with a downward trend unchanged [4]. - Market View: Production has increased, and inventory is high. Although the price has rebounded due to rising coal prices, it is expected to be weak under the pressure of production resumption in the southwest region [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and see [4]. Polysilicon - Trend Status: Weak oscillation at a low level [4]. - Market View: The polysilicon market has high risks [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Trend Status: Stabilized at a low level, with a downward trend unchanged [4]. - Market View: Supply has recovered, but downstream battery inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation is not improving. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Sell short when the price rebounds to a high level [4]. 2. Macro - economic Data - China: In May, the official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5, and the non - manufacturing industry continued to expand; the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, and the service industry and comprehensive PMI showed slight changes [15][17]. - US: On June 4, the steel and aluminum tariffs were raised to 50%; the May ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for three consecutive months; the May non - farm payrolls increased by 139000, the lowest since February [19][20][22]. - Eurozone: The May manufacturing PMI's contraction slowed down, and output increased for the third consecutive month [21]. 3. Market Data Tracking - Copper: Various inventory data, such as COMEX, LME, and Chinese bonded - area inventories, showed different trends in week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year comparisons [9]. - Aluminum: Data on 6063 aluminum rod inventory, port alumina and bauxite inventory, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory were tracked [55]. - Zinc: Data on global visible inventory, SHFE inventory, and zinc downstream product prices were tracked [70][73]. - Lead: Data on SHFE and LME lead inventory, and lead production and price data were tracked [84][91]. - Nickel: Data on LME and SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel - related product prices were tracked [100][112]. - Tin: Data on LME tin inventory, tin - related product prices, and smelting profit were tracked [129][131][125]. - Industrial Silicon and Stainless Steel: Their respective price trends and inventory data were tracked [136][137]