基本面未有实质性好转，甲醇或继续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price closed at 2,277 yuan/ton, up 2.48% from the previous week. In the spot market, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The price of inland methanol was generally weak, while the coastal methanol market rebounded but had poor sales after the increase, and the basis declined [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,985,884 tons, an increase of 19,529 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 88.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. Overall, the number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [12] - Downstream Capacity Utilization: As of June 5, 2025, the average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether decreased; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides increased; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde increased slightly [16][18] - Enterprise Inventory and Orders: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 370,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%; the orders to be delivered were 262,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. Inventory and order trends varied by region [21] - Port Inventory: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 581,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.13%. Different regions had different inventory changes [27] - Profit: Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of Hebei coke oven gas was 88.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 49.57%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based was 12.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83.44%; the average profit of Shandong coal - based was 40.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63.94%; the average profit of southwest natural gas - based was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.42% [30] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, the number of methanol device resumptions is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0164 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.47%, an increase from last week [34][35] - Downstream Demand: The olefin industry will maintain a high - level operation; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to change little; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to continue to decline [36] - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 352,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [36] - Recommendation: The fundamentals of methanol are relatively stable, and it may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [37]