Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke down by 70 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down by 75 yuan/ton. The results of the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism may have a significant impact on macro sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have rebounded to near the spot parity level. The current weak fundamentals of coking coal and coke remain unchanged, and it is difficult for prices to continue rising. [6] - With the increase in the impact of summer high temperatures and heavy precipitation, steel consumption is seasonally weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. However, steel mills are still profitable, and their enthusiasm for production cuts is limited. The decline in iron - water production has slowed down and remains at a relatively high level. Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are trying to reduce inventory by controlling and reducing purchases, with a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. [6] - Coke enterprises are facing greater shipment pressure, with continuously and rapidly increasing passive inventory. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, the coke enterprises' production has slightly decreased. After the third round of price cuts, coke enterprises' profits are near the break - even point, and there may be further price cuts in the future. Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] - In terms of coking coal supply, there have been many safety accidents in Shanxi coal mines recently, and with the arrival of the production safety month, the uncertainty of coal mine supply has increased. At the same time, due to inventory and loss pressure, more coal mines are reducing production, resulting in a slight reduction in coal supply, but it is still relatively loose. The coking coal spot market is operating weakly, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Coke Futures - For J2601, yesterday's price was 12601, today's price is 1358.5, with a rise of 56; for J2605, yesterday's price was 1377.0, today's price is 1363.0, with a rise of 14.0; for J2509, yesterday's price was 9056T, today's price is 1345.0, with a rise of 8.5. [2] Coking Coal Futures - For JM2601, yesterday's price was 7925, today's price is 773.0, with a fall of 19.5; for JM2605, yesterday's price was 818.5, today's price is 802.5, with a fall of 16.0; for JM2509, yesterday's price was 778.5, today's price is 757.0, with a fall of 5.15. [2] Spot Market - Coke: The ex - factory prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, Heze, and Tangshan all decreased, with a decrease of 70 - 75 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt prices of coke in Rizhao Port, Shanxi wet - quenched coke, and Xuyang dry - quenched coke also decreased. [2] - Coking Coal: The prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coking coal changed, with the low - volatile remaining unchanged and the medium - volatile decreasing by 53 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt prices of some coking coal also changed, with the optimal coking coal warehouse - receipt price decreasing by 20 yuan/ton. [2] Coking Profit - The 01, 05, and 09 contract coking profits all decreased, with decreases of 16.0, 6.9, and 19.8 yuan/ton respectively. The Shanxi spot profit decreased by 62.4 yuan/ton. [2] Fundamentals - Coke: The daily average production of 247 steel enterprises' coke decreased by 0.04, a decrease of 0.08%; the daily average consumption decreased by 0.05, a decrease of 0.05%. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 15.6, an increase of 14.03%. [2] - Coking Coal: The daily average production of 110 coal - washing plants' clean coal decreased by 0.3, a decrease of 0.60%; the daily average production of 523 mines' clean coal decreased by 1.8, a decrease of 2.29%. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal decreased by 27.4, a decrease of 3.24%. [2] 2. Night - session Review - The JM2509 contract of coking coal futures closed at 778 yuan/ton, and the J2509 contract of coke futures closed at 1336 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the 2509 contract was 250.9 yuan/ton, down 19.8 yuan/ton from the previous day. [2] 3. Important News - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism will hold its first meeting. The negotiation on the price commitment of the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point. [4] - The price of billets in Tangshan Qian'an decreased by 20 yuan/ton over the weekend. The trading volume of iron ore in major ports decreased by 22.8% on June 6, while the trading volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders increased by 4.9%. [4] - The planned output of 79 domestic hot - rolled strip steel mills in June 2025 is expected to increase by 18.11 million tons compared with May. The price of Mongolian imported coking coal has been declining since May to early June, with a cumulative decline of 15.06%. [5] - As of June 5, the freight volume of Xinjiang Railway this year reached 101 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The export volume of Mongolian coal from January to May 2025 decreased by 2.35% year - on - year, and the export value decreased by 40.77% year - on - year. [5] 4. Trading Strategy - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The results of the China - US economic and trade consultation may affect macro sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke futures are near the spot parity level, and it is difficult for prices to continue rising. [6] - Steel consumption is seasonally weakening, but steel mills are still profitable, and their production - cut enthusiasm is limited. Steel mills are trying to reduce inventory and suppress raw material prices. Coke enterprises are facing greater shipment pressure, and there may be further price cuts. [6] - Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Coking coal supply has some uncertainties, but it is still relatively loose. The coking coal spot market is weak, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6]
煤焦早评-20250609
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-09 03:16