氧化铝及电解铝月报：多空并存，氧化铝及电解铝震荡-20250609

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The alumina market is in a stand - off between bulls and bears. With unstable bauxite policies in Guinea and reduced shipments during the rainy season, the expected decrease in imported ore and firm ore prices support alumina costs. However, the recovery of alumina enterprise profits has led to high复产 willingness, and nearly one million tons of production capacity is planned to resume production at the end of May. After reaching full production in June, the favorable supply - demand pattern may be broken, putting pressure on prices. Alumina is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 3000 mark [3][64]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the supply - side capacity is approaching the ceiling and is expected to remain stable. The proportion of molten aluminum has increased since May, potentially reducing the supply of aluminum ingots. On the consumption side, the photovoltaic rush - installation has ended, and subsequent photovoltaic consumption lacks momentum. The automotive sector will enter a seasonal off - season in summer, and the real estate sector remains weakly stable. However, supported by orders from UHV and power transmission projects and distribution network agreement inventories, the cable sector is expected to maintain growth. The overall aluminum market supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3][65]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Alumina futures rose in May and then slightly declined. At the beginning of the month, due to increased losses in alumina production capacity, expanded maintenance, and a shortage of spot supply, the price rebounded from a low of 2664 yuan/ton but was blocked around 3000 yuan/ton. Later, concerns about ore shortages pushed the price up to 3274 yuan/ton, but at the end of the month, the expected resumption of production led to a price decline, closing at 2962 yuan/ton, up 8.54%. The monthly structure changed from a slight Contango to a Back structure [9]. - Shanghai aluminum futures fell below 19500 yuan/ton at the beginning of May and then rebounded to above 20000 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of further positive factors, the price fluctuated narrowly above 20000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, closing at 20070 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. LME aluminum fluctuated after a brief decline, closing at 2392 US dollars/ton, down 5.75%. The Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio fluctuated between 8.02 and 8.22, with an import loss of around 1000 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas - Trade tensions eased in May. After the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks, both sides agreed to adjust tariffs. The EU - US trade negotiations made progress, and the suspension of the "Liberation Day" tariff policy reduced concerns about the trade war. The Fed maintained the plan to reduce "balance - sheet reduction" [12]. - In terms of employment and inflation, the US added 139,000 non - farm jobs in May, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The core PCE inflation in April was in line with expectations. Economic data showed a slowdown in personal consumption growth, a decline in durable goods orders, and a contraction in the manufacturing PMI [13]. - In Europe, the economic sentiment and confidence indices mostly rebounded, GDP was slightly revised down, PPI declined in March, retail sales slowed down, and the PMI was revised up. The EU - US trade negotiation window was extended, and ECB officials supported interest rate cuts [14][16]. Domestic - China's economic data in April showed resilience. Industrial added value, social consumption, and fixed - asset investment maintained growth. The manufacturing PMI was 49.5% in May, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%. In terms of prices, CPI declined by 0.1% year - on - year in April, and PPI declined by 2.7% year - on - year. LPR and deposit rates were cut, with a larger cut in deposit rates [17]. 3. Alumina Market Analysis Bauxite - In May, domestic bauxite production tightened due to rainfall, safety drills, and environmental inspections. Bauxite prices remained stable. Imported bauxite reached record - high import volumes from January to April, but the situation in Guinea is unstable, and with the rainy season approaching, imported ore supply may decline. Domestic and imported bauxite supply is expected to be tight, and prices are expected to rise steadily [22][23]. Alumina Supply - In April 2025, China's alumina production was 719.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.46%. Supply was restricted in April due to maintenance and production cuts. As of May 27, the built - in production capacity was 112.2 million tons, the operating capacity was 85.65 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.34%. In May, new northern production capacity started output. In terms of imports and exports, exports were high in April but are expected to decrease in May, while imports are expected to increase [24][26]. Alumina Inventory and Spot - As of the end of May, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 127,000 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. The exchange factory warehouse inventory was 1500 tons, also a decrease. The alumina spot premium was strong at the beginning and end of May and turned to a discount in the middle [27]. Alumina Cost and Profit - In April 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of the alumina industry was 3103.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106.41 yuan/ton from March. Raw material prices such as bauxite, caustic soda, and thermal coal declined, leading to a reduction in costs [28]. Alumina View - The alumina market is in a stand - off between bulls and bears. The unstable bauxite policy in Guinea and the rainy season support costs, but the high willingness of enterprises to resume production may break the favorable supply - demand pattern, and the price will continue to fluctuate around 3000 [29]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In April 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.6137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.64%. In May, capacity transfer, resumption, and new production continued, and the operating capacity increased slightly. Global (excluding China) electrolytic aluminum production decreased in April, and it is expected to be 2.405 million tons in May. In terms of imports and exports, imports increased in April, and exports also increased significantly [34][37]. Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - As of the end of May, the aluminum ingot inventory was 511,000 tons, the aluminum rod inventory was 128,300 tons, and the total social inventory decreased from the previous month. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory and LME inventory also decreased [38]. Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - The spot premium of electrolytic aluminum gradually increased in April, and the LME premium converged [39]. Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In May, the theoretical average fully - taxed cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,535.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 86.46 yuan/ton from the previous month. The monthly theoretical profit was 3604.22 yuan/ton, an increase of 136.82 yuan/ton from the previous month [40]. 5. Consumption Analysis Aluminum Processing - The aluminum processing industry entered the off - season in May, with weak terminal demand and limited new orders. Different sectors had different performances, with the cable sector maintaining growth. In June, production enthusiasm may be further suppressed [57]. Domestic Terminal Consumption - In the real estate sector, investment, new construction, and completion all declined in the first four months of 2025. In the new energy vehicle sector, sales continued to grow in April, but overseas trade protectionism may impact exports. In the power sector, grid investment increased in the first four months of 2025, and the aluminum cable industry is expected to maintain growth. In the photovoltaic sector, the installed capacity increased significantly in April, but subsequent consumption may lack momentum [58][60]. Aluminum Exports - In April 2025, China exported 520,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year flat and a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. From January to April, cumulative exports decreased by 5.7% year - on - year. The relaxation of tariff tensions in May is beneficial for exports, but the previous "rush - export" may limit subsequent growth [61]. 6. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, overseas instability factors increase, while China's economy shows resilience, but external challenges also exist. For alumina, the market will continue to see a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the price will fluctuate around 3000. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is approaching the ceiling, and the overall supply - demand is expected to be weak, with the price continuing to fluctuate within a range [64][65].