Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 15.75 to close at 1058 cents per bushel, a 1.51% increase; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 42 to close at 3010 yuan per ton, a 1.42% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2820 yuan per ton, a 2.08% decrease; the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell 29 to close at 2608 yuan per ton, a 1.1% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 30 to close at 2460 yuan per ton, a 1.2% decrease [4]. - After the China - US presidential call, trade concerns eased, the market atmosphere improved, and US soybeans closed higher with weekly fluctuations. The US soybean sowing season is nearing its end and started well. Domestic oil mills' operating rates are at a high level, and soybeans and soybean meal are in an inventory - building rhythm, with supply becoming more abundant and spot prices under slight downward pressure. Boosted by trade sentiment, US soybeans rose. Coupled with the decline in Brazilian farmers' selling enthusiasm and the increase in premiums, the Dalian soybean meal contract fluctuated upwards. There is an expectation of improvement in China - Canada trade relations, and the rapeseed sector showed weakness due to sentiment, with rapeseed meal closing lower with fluctuations [4][7]. - The US soybean crop condition report shows a good start. The weather forecast indicates that overall precipitation in the production areas is higher than normal, but the central - western production areas are relatively dry, which may put pressure on regional crop growth. Continued attention should be paid to weather changes. After the China - US presidential call, trade sentiment improved, and further negotiation progress should be monitored. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously increasing, supply is becoming more abundant, and spot prices are still under pressure, limiting the upward range of the futures market. The far - month contracts are still strongly supported, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate slightly upwards in the short term. In addition, attention should be paid to the evolution of China - Canada trade relations and its potential impact on the rapeseed sector [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price on June 6 was 1058.00 cents per bushel, up 15.75 (1.51%) from May 30. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 447.00 dollars per ton, up 6.00 (1.36%); the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans was 457.00 dollars per ton, up 1.00 (0.22%). The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market was 81.71 yuan per ton, down 13.59 from the previous period. The DCE soybean meal 09 contract was 3010.00 yuan per ton, up 42 (1.42%); the CZCE rapeseed meal 09 contract was 2608.00 yuan per ton, down 29 (1.1%). The spot price of soybean meal in East China was 2840.00 yuan per ton, down 20 (0.70%); in South China, it was 2820.00 yuan per ton, down 60 (2.08%). The spot - futures price difference in South China was - 190.00 yuan per ton, down 102 from the previous period [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - US Soybeans: The US soybean sowing progress as of June 1, 2025, was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%. The emergence rate was 63%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. As of May 27, about 17% of the planting areas were affected by drought. The weekly export inspection volume as of May 29 was 26.83 tons, in line with expectations. The current - market - year export net sales increased by 19.4 tons. The cumulative export sales volume in the 2024/2025 season was 4865 tons, with a sales progress of 96.6%. The US soybean crushing volume in April was 607 million short tons, and the cumulative crushing volume from September 2024 to April 2025 was 4924 million short tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.94%. The crushing profit as of May 30 was 2.11 dollars per bushel, down 1% from the previous week [8][9]. - Brazilian and Argentine Soybeans: As of May 31, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 99.8%. The estimated soybean export volume in June was 1255 tons, lower than last year's 1383 tons. As of June 4, the Argentine soybean harvest progress was 88.7%, and the estimated 2024/2025 harvest was about 5000 tons [10]. - Domestic Situation: As of May 30, the inventory of major oil mills' soybeans was 582.88 tons, up 22.25 tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 29.8 tons, up 9.11 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 369.29 tons, up 33.89 tons. The national port soybean inventory was 705.4 tons, up 30.1 tons. As of June 6, the weekly average daily trading volume of national soybean meal was 11.94 tons (9.59 tons for spot and 2.35 tons for forward contracts), the average daily pick - up volume was 20.12 tons, the major oil mills' crushing volume was 224.46 tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 6.31 days [10][11]. Industry News - Strategic Grains significantly revised down the EU's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 1860 tons, lower than the April forecast of 1900 tons but about 11% higher than the 2024/2025 production. It also revised down the EU's 2025/26 sunflower seed and soybean production forecasts [12]. - The IMEA in Brazil's Mato Grosso state maintained its 2025/26 soybean planting area forecast at 1300.82 million hectares, up 1.67% from the previous year; the yield per unit area was expected to be 60.45 bags per hectare, down 8.81%; the production was expected to be 4718.44 tons, down 7.29% [13]. - As of June 1, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 263 tons, down from 324 tons last year; soybean imports were 1294 tons, up from 1213 tons; soybean meal imports were 1768 tons, up from 1408 tons; rapeseed imports were 640 tons, up from 519 tons [13]. - As of May 28, Argentine farmers sold 90.89 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 1787.65 tons. They also sold 2.71 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 12.84 tons [14]. - A commodity research institution maintained its 2025/26 Ukrainian rapeseed production forecast at 325 tons. The weather conditions in Ukraine have been mixed in the past two weeks, with the western region being cool and wet and the eastern region being warm and dry [15]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina indicated that the current - year soybean yield per unit area is developing better than expected, and the estimated 2024/25 soybean harvest is about 5000 tons and 4900 tons of corn [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, management fund CBOT net position, soybean meal futures and spot price trends, US soybean production area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean harvest progress, US soybean export - related data, US oil mill crushing profit, soybean meal trading and pick - up volume, and port and oil mill inventory data [16][17][18][21][35][36][40][43][47][49][53][54][55].
豆粕周报：进口成本抬升，连粕震荡收涨-20250609
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-09 03:10