甲醇日评：短期反弹，高度有限-20250609

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol has a rebound momentum due to the recent rebound of oil prices and coal, and the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading. However, the upward momentum of methanol is insufficient. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving perspective, after the weakening of macro - impact, methanol returns to its own fundamental pricing. The supply of imports and inland supply recovers quickly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern and insufficient upward momentum for methanol [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 increased from 2327.00 yuan/ton to 2319.00 yuan/ton, up 0.34%; MA05 increased from 2270.00 yuan/ton to 2263.00 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; MA09 increased from 2264.00 yuan/ton to 2259.00 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [1] - Methanol spot prices: In some regions like Guangdong, it increased by 0.11% (from 2292.50 yuan/ton to 2295.00 yuan/ton), and in Hubei, it increased by 0.23% (from 2220.00 yuan/ton to 2225.00 yuan/ton). While in regions such as Shandong, Shaanxi, etc., there was no change [1] - The difference between Taicang spot and MA decreased by 10.50 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal spot prices: There was no change in the prices of Ordos Q5500 (425.00 yuan/ton), Datong Q5500 (470.00 yuan/ton), and Yulin Q6000 (480.00 yuan/ton) [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: There was no change in the prices in Hohhot (3.94 yuan/cubic meter) and Chongqing (3.30 yuan/cubic meter) [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 600.00 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 1.73% (from 577.60 yuan/ton to 587.60 yuan/ton), while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 5.23% (from - 477.57 yuan/ton to - 502.57 yuan/ton). The profit of MTBE increased by 14.36% (from 221.52 yuan/ton to 253.32 yuan/ton), and the profit of acetic acid decreased by 0.53% (from 515.45 yuan/ton to 512.70 yuan/ton) [1] 4. News and Information - Abroad: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply [1] - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2269 yuan/ton, closing at 2264 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 607,691 lots and a position of 7,996,440. It was a trading day with volume reduction and position reduction [1]