长江期货饲料养殖产业周报-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with the price under pressure in the short - term and facing supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The egg market has a seasonal weakening in demand, and the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter. The corn market has intensified supply - demand competition, with short - term price support and long - term upward drive but limited upside space [4][5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the national spot price was 14.26 yuan/kg, down 0.36 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 14.09 yuan/kg, down 0.27 yuan/kg; the futures price of live pigs 2509 was 13460 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton; the 09 - contract basis was 630 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton [4][15]. 3.1.2 Supply End - From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased steadily, and the performance improved. In the case of stable epidemics, the supply from May to September showed an increasing trend. Although the production capacity has been reduced, the overall reduction is limited. In June, the pressure of live pig slaughter is still high. The proportion of small pig slaughter decreased, and the proportion of large pig slaughter increased slightly. The average slaughter weight continued to decline [4]. 3.1.3 Demand End - The weekly slaughter start - up rate and slaughter volume both declined. After the Dragon Boat Festival, demand fell, and downstream demand was poor. The cold - storage market demand was dull, but the cold - storage inventory was low, and the enthusiasm for cold - storage warehousing might increase as the pig price continued to fall [4]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The weekly piglet price dropped slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, the feed cost was low, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets increased slightly [4]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - In June, the pressure of live pig slaughter is still high, and the overall consumption is difficult to perform well. The pig price still has a risk of decline, but the entry enthusiasm of secondary fattening and low cold - storage inventory limits the decline. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large, and the forward price rebound is under pressure [4]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - The futures price is at a discount. In the short - term, it fluctuates at a low level. Wait for the price to rebound to the resistance level and then go short [4]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.83 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price of the main egg - selling areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin; the main egg contract 2507 closed at 2859 yuan/500 kg, down 79 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was - 279 yuan/500 kg, up 79 yuan/500 kg. The egg price is expected to run weakly and stably in the future [5]. 3.2.2 Supply End - In June, the number of newly - opened laying hens was relatively high. The current market supply is still relatively sufficient, which exerts pressure on the egg price. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, but the number of newly - opened laying hens may decrease in the fourth quarter [5]. 3.2.3 Demand End - After the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand for replenishment and cold - storage warehousing increased, which supported the egg price, but the demand for eggs decreased seasonally, and the substitution consumption had support [5]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the egg price has certain support, but the demand weakens seasonally, and the supply is still sufficient, which exerts pressure on the egg price. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter. In the long - term, the supply pressure may be relieved in the fourth quarter [5]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - Temporarily wait and see for the 07 contract, be cautious about bottom - fishing; treat the 08 and 09 contracts bearishly, wait for the price to rebound and then go short; pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price for the 10 contract [5]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2310 yuan/ton, stable compared with last Friday; the main corn contract 2507 closed at 2340 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton; the main basis was - 30 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The corn price is expected to run narrowly in the future [6]. 3.3.2 Supply End - The listing of new wheat puts pressure on the corn price, and traders' willingness to sell corn increases, but the supply from the grass - roots level is basically over, and the inventory in the north and south ports is in the process of reduction, which supports the spot price [6]. 3.3.3 Demand End - The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives the increase in feed demand, but the narrowing of the corn - wheat price difference makes downstream buyers prefer wheat, and the deep - processing industry is in a loss state, with limited demand growth [7]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the supply - demand competition in the corn market intensifies, and the price has support. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship tightens, and the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Treat the overall trend as stable and slightly strong. The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level, and go long at the lower limit of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9].