综合晨报-20250609

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors such as macro - economic data, trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics across different commodities and financial markets. Investors should pay attention to these factors and make investment decisions accordingly [1][19][34] - For most commodities, the market presents a complex situation with both supportive and restrictive factors, and specific investment strategies vary by commodity [3][8][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Last week, international oil prices rebounded with Brent 08 contract up 6.45%. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations and improved macro - risk sentiment support oil prices after the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase fades [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and supply is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under a situation of weak supply and demand [20] - Asphalt: Supply growth lacks momentum, demand is seasonally increasing, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a strengthening BU crack spread [21] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Domestic refinery prices are weak, but supply pressure has decreased. The market is expected to remain in low - level oscillations [22] Precious Metals - Gold: Gold prices fell on Friday due to better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, suppressing Fed rate - cut expectations. Gold is supported at $3000 and a buy - on - dip strategy is considered [2] - Silver: After breaking through resistance, silver has more upside potential [2] Base Metals - Copper: LME copper prices retreated, and inventory decreased. The Fed may keep rates unchanged, and the market focuses on US tariff negotiations. Short - term traders should consider stop - losses above 79,500 [3] - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. De - stocking slowed, and the market is cautious about the transition from strong reality to weak expectations. Short - selling on price increases is recommended [4] - Alumina: Spot prices declined, and the long - term oversupply situation remains. Short - selling on price increases is advisable, but avoid chasing short positions after the futures discount widens [5] - Zinc: Supply is expected to increase while demand weakens. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is maintained [6] - Lead: Lead prices are in a narrow range at the bottom. Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [7] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Nickel prices oscillated downward. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [8] - Tin: Tin prices rebounded significantly. Supply may be tighter than expected, and inventory decreased. Consider reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts near 265,000 [9] - Carbonate Lithium: Futures prices oscillated. Inventory changes show positive market sentiment. The price decline slows, and a light - position participation in the oscillatory rebound is suggested [10] - Polysilicon: The market center of gravity moved downward. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11] - Industrial Silicon: Futures prices opened higher and then retraced. Supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The market oscillated. Supply is strong and has room for growth, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate with limited rebound space [14] - Coke: Prices rebounded significantly. Supply is relatively abundant, and the price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [15] - Coking Coal: Prices rebounded. Supply is still abundant, and the price rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - Manganese Silicon: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Inventory decreased, but the fundamental improvement is limited. A light - position long - entry to test the rebound sustainability is recommended [17] - Silicon Iron: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Demand is fair, and supply is decreasing. Observe the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Chemicals - Urea: Futures prices fell sharply last week. Agricultural demand is limited, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. Short - term support at integer levels should be monitored [23] - Methanol: Coal prices are low, and methanol supply is expected to increase. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the impact of shipping restrictions in Jiangsu should be noted [24] - Styrene: Supply is expected to increase, and the market sentiment is weak. Enterprises are reducing prices to sell [25] - Polypropylene & Plastic: Polyethylene supply is supported by maintenance, but demand is in the off - season. Polypropylene demand is weak, and supply pressure is increasing [26] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and supply is high [27] - PX & PTA: Prices oscillated weakly. Supply increased while downstream demand decreased. The price is expected to be under pressure [28] - Ethylene Glycol: Prices oscillated downward. Supply increased, and demand may weaken [29] - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: Short - fiber demand is weak, and bottle - chip may face inventory pressure. Industry production cuts may occur [30] Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: Dalian soybean meal increased in volume last week. US soybeans are rebounding, and domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant. Attention should be paid to weather changes from June to August [34] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Domestic soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Weather will be a key factor for soybean prices. Overall, soybean and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range [35] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The market is influenced by trade relations and North American weather. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, the price center may move up [36] - Soybean No.1: Domestic soybean prices rebounded slightly. Weather will be the main factor affecting prices in the medium - term [37] - Corn: Corn futures prices increased with reduced positions. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - Pig: Pig prices decreased over the weekend. Supply is increasing, and short - term prices may continue to fall. Medium - term supply pressure may be reduced by policy [39] - Egg: Egg prices are expected to decline further. Near - month futures should be short - sold, and far - month futures do not have the conditions for a reversal [40] - Cotton: US cotton planting progress is slow, and domestic cotton demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [41] - Sugar: US sugar prices oscillated. International supply is expected to be negative, and domestic sugar sales are good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42] - Apple: Apple futures prices oscillated. Market focus is on new - season production estimates. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [43] - Timber: Timber prices are weak. Supply may be limited, but demand is in the off - season. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [44] - Pulp: Pulp prices oscillated weakly. Inventory is relatively high, and demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and long - entry opportunities on significant price drops should be noted [45] Others - Container Freight Index (Europe Line): The spot price of the Europe line is rising strongly, but the US line may peak. The market should pay attention to trade negotiations, and short - selling should be cautious [19] - Stock Index: A - share market is lackluster, and the market is influenced by US non - farm payrolls data and trade negotiations. The market may recover if there are substantial trade progress [46] - Treasury Bond: Treasury bond futures prices increased. The market is relatively stable, and long - entry opportunities after price drops can be considered [47]