成本支撑与宏观博弈，镍价低位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro level: US economic soft data has been revised, but the Fed's attitude remains hawkish, and the game between Powell and Trump will continue. Tariff risks have resurfaced, and the court's ruling on Trump's tariffs has been postponed. The "TACO" trading strategy is prevalent, and policy disturbances may be quickly repaired [3]. - Cost aspect: The shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia persisted throughout the month, and the price of laterite nickel ore continued to rise. Although there was information about a significant increase in the nickel ore approval quota in Indonesia in the middle of the month, the nickel ore price did not loosen, and cost support remained [3]. - Fundamental supply and demand: Both supply and demand decreased. The production of electrolytic nickel contracted slightly, but the export window remained open, and the overall domestic supply remained at a high level. The production of stainless steel decreased for the second consecutive month, and the inventory - reduction process was tortuous. The easing of tariffs did not effectively drive stainless - steel consumption. The production schedule of ternary materials was generally stable, and there were no obvious marginal changes in the fundamentals [3]. - Outlook: Trump's tariff policy may cause periodic disturbances at the macro level, but the policy disturbances may be quickly repaired. On the fundamentals, driven by the export window, the domestic supply of electrolytic nickel may remain at a high level. The inventory of stainless steel is being reduced, but the progress is slow, and the effect of rushing to export may be difficult to materialize. The new - energy consumption growth rate is gradually slowing down, and it is difficult for the demand side to show obvious increments. Overall, there is no expectation of improvement in the fundamentals, the cost - support logic remains, and the macro level may have periodic disturbances, but the correction expectation is strong. Nickel prices may fluctuate at a low level [3][40]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In May, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated weakly. At the beginning of May, due to the boost of the China - US trade agreement, the macro - expectation was repaired, and the nickel price rose. However, as the stainless - steel inventory remained high, the expectation of rushing to export was frustrated, and the price weakened. In the late month, the rumor of a significant increase in the nickel ore approval quota in Indonesia dragged down the nickel price, but the price quickly recovered after the fall [8]. - The spot premium of refined nickel first weakened and then strengthened. Although the nickel price declined in May, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was limited. The premium decreased from 2400 yuan at the beginning of the month to 2150 yuan on May 22nd. At the end of the month, affected by the sharp decline in the nickel price, the downstream purchasing was stimulated, and the premium rose from 2150 yuan on the 22nd to 2600 yuan on the 30th [10]. 3.2 Macro Analysis Overseas - US economic data was mixed. In April, the year - on - year growth rate of the US core PCE was 2.5%, in line with expectations, and the inflation pressure eased. The manufacturing performance was below expectations, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in May at 48.5. The labor market was generally stable [13]. - Tariff risks remained, but the actual disturbance was limited. Trump's tariff policy was initially stopped by the court but then the ruling was postponed. Although Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum products on May 30th, the market believes that his tariff policy will still follow the "high - start and low - end" pattern, and the "TACO" trading strategy is still popular, so the actual impact is limited [14]. Domestic - The performance of the manufacturing industry was divided, indicating that domestic demand was stronger than foreign trade. In May, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.5, in line with expectations, and the demand - side data improved. However, the Caixin manufacturing PMI was weaker, reflecting the difficulties faced by small and medium - sized private manufacturing enterprises [15]. - Domestic consumption vitality was increasing. In April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased for the second consecutive month, and the CPI growth rate was repaired [16]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Nickel Ore Shortage Continued, and Ore Prices Kept Rising - The price of laterite nickel ore in Indonesia (1.5%) increased from $39.1 per wet ton to $40.8 per wet ton, while the price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore in the Philippines decreased from $51 per wet ton to $48.5 per wet ton. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia was tight, and the price remained strong. Although there was news of an increase in the approval quota, the price did not loosen. The continuous rainfall in Indonesia and the Philippines affected the shipment of nickel ore [17]. - In April, China's nickel - ore imports were 291.41 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.03%. As of May 30th, the domestic port inventory was about 725.88 tons, a slight increase compared with the end of April but still at an absolute low level in the past three years [19]. 3.3.2 Electrolytic Nickel Supply Contracted Month - on - Month, and Upstream Cost Pressure Was Prominent - In May, the total output of refined nickel in China was 35,350 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37.82%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.34%, 16.13 percentage points lower than the expected level, and the over - capacity pattern continued. In April, the profit margins of all process lines of integrated electrowinning nickel decreased [20]. - In April, China imported 19,157 tons of refined nickel, a year - on - year increase of about 135.76%. The export volume was about 17,216 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 150.3% and 18.51% respectively. The export window remained open, and the average monthly export profit in May was repaired to $204.78 per ton [22]. 3.3.3 Weak Downstream Buying, and Nickel - Iron Inventory Continued to Accumulate - In May, the price of high - nickel pig iron declined from 959 yuan per nickel point at the beginning of the month to 954 yuan per nickel point at the end of the month [24]. - In May, China's nickel - iron output was 25,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%. In June, the expected production was 25,640 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. The cost was strong, and only the Shandong pyrometallurgical BF process could maintain good profits, while the RKEF and EF processes had negative profit margins. The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased for two consecutive months, and the terminal consumption was still weak. As of May 30th, the domestic nickel - iron inventory was about 275,500 tons (physical tons), an increase of about 27,500 tons compared with the end of April [25]. - In April, the domestic nickel - iron imports were about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. The imports from Indonesia accounted for about 97.28% [26]. 3.3.4 No Obvious Increment in Demand, and the Expectation of Nickel Sulfate Was Stable - In May, the price of nickel sulfate fluctuated weakly. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased from 28,085 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month to 27,915 yuan per ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate decreased to about 30,000 yuan per ton [28]. - In May, the output of nickel sulfate was 26,015 tons (metal content), a year - on - year decrease of 20.51% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The output of ternary materials increased. The output of 5 - series and 8 - series ternary cathode materials decreased month - on - month, while the production of 6 - series ternary materials expanded. Except for the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, which was still in a loss state, the profit margins of other process lines were positive. In April, China imported about 32,604 tons of nickel sulfate and exported 567 tons [29]. 3.3.5 Supply Contracted, and Inventory Was Slowly Reduced - In May, the price of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly. The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased for two consecutive months, and the net export scale in April decreased slightly. The downstream demand had no obvious increment. As of May 30th, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons compared with the end of April, but the inventory - reduction strength was less than the production - reduction strength, reflecting weak consumption [31]. 3.3.6 Limited Growth in the Power Sector, and the Industrial Track May Shift - From January to April, the cumulative sales volume of new - energy vehicles was about 4.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 46.26%. From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - vehicle market were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31%, but the growth rate was lower than the nearly 40% growth rate at the beginning of the year. The new - energy vehicle sales in May were generally stable, but the consumption increment momentum weakened [34]. - In the later stage, the sales increment of new - energy vehicles in the third quarter may be weak. The new - energy consumption policy is gradually shifting to new - energy heavy - duty trucks, ships and other transportation fields, which may partially fill the demand gap caused by the weakening of passenger - vehicle consumption [34]. 3.3.7 Supply Contraction Dragged Down Inventory Reduction - As of May 30, 2025, the domestic refined - nickel social inventory was about 41,553 tons, a decrease of 3,048 tons compared with the end of April; the SHFE inventory was 22,299 tons, a decrease of 2,009 tons compared with the end of April; the LME nickel inventory was 201,462 tons, an increase of 144 tons compared with the end of April. The supply reduction was slightly greater than the inventory - reduction amount, and the demand side was relatively weaker. In June, the domestic supply is expected to further contract, but the export window remains open, and the fundamentals may continue the pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot inventory may continue to be reduced due to the supply contraction [36]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Supply: The export window remains open, and the supply may remain at a high level [40]. - Demand: Steel - enterprise production control may suppress the production scale of stainless steel, and the expectation of rushing to export has not been fulfilled. The production schedule of ternary materials is expected to be stable [40]. - Cost: Although the nickel - ore approval quota in Indonesia has increased, the shortage situation has not been alleviated, and the ore price remains high [40]. - Macro: Tariff risks remain, but the "TACO" trading may quickly correct the situation [40].