氧化铝与电解铝日评：国内铝土矿6月供需预期偏松，国内铝锭和铝棒总库存量环比减少-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand outlook for domestic bauxite in June is expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased compared to the previous period. The report also provides trading strategies for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy, suggesting investors to take corresponding actions based on market conditions [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Shanghai Aluminum Futures - The closing price of the active contract on June 6, 2025, was 20,070 yuan, up 60 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 113,736 lots, a decrease of 13,402 lots; the open interest was 181,458 lots, a decrease of 2,706 lots; and the inventory was 47,792 tons, a decrease of 349 tons [2] 3.1.2 Shanghai Aluminum Basis - The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum on June 6, 2025, was 20,230 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai aluminum basis was 160 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan [2] 3.1.3 Alumina Spot Price - The national average price of alumina on June 6, 2025, was 3,269.68 yuan/ton, down 4.05 yuan from the previous day. The prices in different regions showed different degrees of change [2] 3.1.4 Alumina Futures Price - The closing price on June 6, 2025, was 2,901 yuan, down 42 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 696,379 lots, an increase of 20,294 lots; the open interest was 298,435 lots, a decrease of 21,037 lots; and the inventory was 92,768 tons, a decrease of 3,906 tons [2] 3.1.5 London Aluminum - The closing price of the LME 3 - month aluminum futures (electronic trading) on June 6, 2025, was 9,670.5 yuan, down 37 yuan from the previous day. The LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 69.84 yuan, a decrease of 23.31 yuan; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 132.5 yuan, a decrease of 26.84 yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Alumina - In Shanxi and Henan, some mines have resumed production. In Guinea, some mining rights have been revoked or some enterprises have been required to stop production. In Guangxi, a ten - year special inspection on illegal mining and heavy - metal pollution will be carried out. These factors may lead to a decrease in the production and import volume of domestic bauxite in June, but the demand is expected to be weak. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of Chinese alumina have increased compared to the previous week [3] 3.2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Some electrolytic aluminum projects in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and other places are under construction or have been put into production. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of Chinese electrolytic aluminum are expected to increase in June. The import volume of domestic electrolytic aluminum may increase, but the closing of the import window may limit it. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China has decreased compared to the previous week [3] 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - American enterprises are actively competing for overseas scrap aluminum procurement. The production and import volume of domestic scrap aluminum in June may decrease. The production capacity utilization rate of primary and secondary aluminum alloys in China has changed, and the inventory of aluminum alloy has increased compared to the previous week [3] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Alumina: Due to potential fluctuations in bauxite production in Guinea and Guangxi, the downward space for alumina prices is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 2,600 - 2,900 yuan and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,500 yuan [3] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Although the inventory of aluminum and aluminum rods is decreasing, the traditional consumption off - season is approaching. The price of electrolytic aluminum may fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 19,800 - 20,000 yuan and the resistance level around 20,300 - 20,500 yuan for domestic aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,400 yuan and the resistance level around 2,500 - 2,600 yuan for London aluminum [3] - Aluminum Alloy: The production and import of recycled cast aluminum alloy are in a loss state. The price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy may widen. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity of arbitrage by lightly holding positions to test long the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, focusing on the support level around 19,500 yuan and the resistance level around 20,700 - 20,800 yuan [3]