Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply and demand of PX both increased, with the floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX weakening. The PXN spread also weakened due to the increase in PX unit operation and the restart of maintenance units. The supply of downstream PTA increased while demand decreased, and the de - stocking of PTA social inventory slowed down. The basis was strong, the monthly spread weakened, and the processing fee was strong first and then weak. In June, with the significant increase in PX operating rate and the restart of most previously maintained PTA units, along with the planned commissioning of a new 2.5 - million - ton PTA unit of Honggang Petrochemical Phase 3, PX will still maintain a tight balance under the pattern of increased supply and demand. The polyester downstream is in the seasonal off - season, with poor efficiency of polyester factories, a decline in operation, and a slowdown in the expected de - stocking rate of PTA in June [7]. - Next week, the expected import arrival volume of ethylene glycol is about 137,000 tons. With weak sales of downstream polyester and limited terminal pick - up at the wharf, the port inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread of ethylene glycol will weaken. In June, the maintenance volume of ethylene glycol remains high, and the import is expected to increase slightly. The downstream polyester has poor efficiency, rising inventory, and a decline in operation. In June, ethylene glycol will show a pattern of both supply and demand decline [7]. - This week, the operation of short - fiber decreased, inventory increased, the operation of terminal weaving, texturing, and dyeing declined, short - fiber production enterprises suffered losses, and the expectation of production reduction was strong. The downstream yarn mills also suffered losses, and the inventory of grey fabrics increased, so the short - fiber processing fee may be under pressure [7]. - This week, the operation of bottle - chip decreased. Although the downstream soft - drink industry is still in the peak season, after the previous centralized procurement by bottle - chip downstream, the bottle - chip downstream is still mainly consuming raw material inventory in the short term, and there were still no tenders from large beverage manufacturers this week. Currently, the overall supply of bottle - chip is abundant, the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak, and the bottle - chip processing fee is still under pressure [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - PX & PTA - Logic analysis: This week, PX supply and demand both increased, with weakened floating price, basis, and monthly spread, and a weakened PXN spread. PTA supply increased while demand decreased, and the de - stocking of social inventory slowed down. In June, PX will maintain a tight balance, and the PTA de - stocking rate is expected to slow down [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - long PX and short PTA; Option - double - selling options [7]. - MEG - Logic analysis: Next week, the expected import arrival volume will increase, port inventory is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread will weaken. In June, there will be a pattern of both supply and demand decline [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - sell call options [7]. - PF - Logic analysis: This week, operation decreased, inventory increased, and the processing fee may be under pressure [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - double - selling options [7]. - PR - Logic analysis: This week, operation decreased, and the processing fee is still under pressure [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - sell call options [7]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - The operation of polyester continued to decline this week, inventory increased, and profits remained at a low level. Except for the relatively good profits of filament, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and chip are all in a loss state [10]. - The operation of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing declined [14]. - After the festival, the operation of filament decreased, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Affected by the production reduction of mainstream industry suppliers, the price of filament factories was firm, and the processing fee was stable [16][18]. - The market atmosphere of bottle - chip was weak, and losses intensified. The operation of bottle - chip decreased this week. Although the downstream soft - drink industry is in the peak season, the downstream is still mainly consuming raw material inventory, and there were no tenders from large beverage manufacturers. The overall supply is abundant, and the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak, so the processing fee is still under pressure [19][26]. - Short - fiber is in a loss state, and the expectation of production reduction is strong. The operation of short - fiber decreased this week, with increased inventory, and both short - fiber production enterprises and downstream yarn mills suffered losses [27]. 2.2 PX - The floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX decreased compared with the previous period [29]. - The gasoline inventory increased, and the cracking spread remained weak [31]. - Due to the increase in PX unit operation and the restart of maintenance units, the PXN spread weakened. There are multiple PX unit maintenance and operation adjustment plans in China and Asia (excluding China) [33][35][36]. 2.3 PTA - The de - stocking of PTA social inventory slowed down, the basis was strong, and the monthly spread weakened. As of June 6, the basis of the main port in May was at 09 + 225 for transactions, and the 09 - 01 contract monthly spread was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the last trading day before the festival [37]. - The supply of PTA increased while demand decreased, and the processing fee was strong first and then weak. This week, the operation rate of PTA increased by 3% week - on - week, and in June, the monthly average operation rate is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month. The output in June is expected to increase by about 1 million tons [39][41]. - The spread between domestic and foreign markets of PTA recovered, and the export expectation decreased. From January to April, the cumulative export of PTA was 1.3364 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. After the commissioning of the new Turkish SASA unit, the export volume of PTA to Turkey decreased significantly. In May, the spread between domestic and foreign markets narrowed, the export profit declined, and the export expectation decreased [42][44]. 2.4 Ethylene Glycol - The expected import arrival volume will increase, the port inventory is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread will weaken. As of June 6, the spot basis of ethylene glycol was at a low - level transaction of a premium of 115 - 118 yuan/ton to the 09 contract; the 9 - 1 contract monthly spread was 21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week weakening of 49 yuan/ton [45]. - In June, the maintenance volume of ethylene glycol remains high, and the import is expected to increase slightly. There are multiple domestic and foreign ethylene glycol unit maintenance plans [48][52]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - Price: It shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, Brent crude oil, etc. [56]. - Inter - variety spread & profit: It includes the spreads and profits between PX and other varieties such as naphtha, BLENT, and MX [58][59][60]. - Disproportionation and oil - blending spread & profit: It involves the spreads and profits of Asian toluene disproportionation and oil - blending, and the spread between xylene oil - blending and PX production [69][72][76]. - Inter - regional spread & profit: It shows the spreads and profits between PX in different regions such as the United States and South Korea [80]. - Supply and demand: It presents the operating rates of Chinese and Asian PX, the operating rate of Chinese PTA, and the relationship between PX and PTA prices and processing fees [85]. 3.2 PTA - Profit: It includes the spot profits of PTA from crude oil, naphtha, and the theoretical profit of PTA - PX [93][94][95]. - Supply and demand: It shows the operating rates of PTA and polyester [96][97]. - Inventory: It includes PTA social inventory, polyester factory raw material inventory, PTA factory raw material inventory, and PTA warehouse receipts [98][99]. 3.3 MEG - Price: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol spot in East China, coal prices in Inner Mongolia, methanol ex - tank prices in Jiangsu, and Northeast Asian ethylene prices [100]. - Spread: It includes the spreads between domestic and foreign markets of ethylene glycol, the spread between East and South China, and the spreads between different regions such as Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the United States, and Western Europe [102][103][108]. - Profit: It includes the oil - based profit, MTO profit, ethylene monomer production profit, and coal - based profit of ethylene glycol [112][113][115]. - Supply and demand: It shows the operating rate of ethylene glycol, the operating rate of polyester, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol [117][118]. 3.4 Polyester - Profit: It includes the average profit of filament, short - fiber profit, weighted profit of polyester, bottle - chip processing profit, and chip profit [122][123]. - Supply: It shows the operating rates of polyester, filament, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, as well as the inventory days of filament and short - fiber [124][125][126]. - Demand: It includes the operating rates of pure - polyester yarn, the inventory of pure - polyester yarn finished products and raw materials, the operating rate of polyester - cotton yarn factories, the inventory of Chinese yarn, the operating rate of Chinese grey fabric, the inventory of Chinese grey fabric, and the export data and consumption data of textiles and clothing [128][129][132].
聚酯产业链期货周报-20250609
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-09 03:46