铅锌日评：沪铅或有反弹，沪锌区间整理-20250609

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - For lead, although downstream consumption is in the off - season with high inventory accumulation risk, due to the continuous shortage of waste batteries, the losses of secondary lead smelters have expanded, and some enterprises have suspended shipments. So, the lead price may rebound in the short - term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the effectiveness of cost support and macro uncertainties [1]. - For zinc, the zinc market has strong supply and weak demand. The inventory is at a relatively low level, providing some support for the near - term. In the short - term, the zinc price will mainly fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, the TC has room to rise, and the center of the zinc price may shift down. It is recommended to sell on rallies, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Indicators: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged at 16,500 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.51% to 16,780 yuan/ton. The Shanghai lead basis was - 280 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the futures active contract was 30,853 hands, down 0.20%, and the open interest was 49,975 hands, down 1.01%. The LME inventory was 281,275 tons, unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 41,799 tons, up 0.24%. The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) was 1,974 dollars/ton, down 0.35%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.50, up 0.87% [1]. - Industry Data: From May 31 to June 6, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 70.46%, up 1.46 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 36.2%, down 3.8 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 60.39%, down 10.1 percentage points. As of June 6, the total inventory of lead concentrates at major domestic ports was 10,000 tons. In May, the supply of imported lead concentrates was tight, and the processing fee was lowered again [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Indicators: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,590 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.20% to 22,385 yuan/ton. The Shanghai zinc basis was 205 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the futures active contract was 173,548 hands, up 18.16%, and the open interest was 119,647 hands, down 3.96%. The LME inventory was 136,975 tons, unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 2,004 tons, unchanged. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) was 2,662.5 dollars/ton, down 0.95%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.41, up 1.16% [1]. - Industry Data: From May 31 to June 6, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 59.58%, up 7.41 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 53.68%, up 4.87 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 59.5%, down 0.58 percentage points. In May, the comprehensive operating rate of SMM zinc concentrates was 73%, up 6.2% month - on - month, and it is expected to reach 77% in June. As of June 6, the total inventory of SMM zinc concentrates at major Chinese ports was 345,500 tons, up 29,500 tons from last week [1].