生猪周报：降重压力下，猪价下跌-20250609

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by September, and the pig price is prone to fall and difficult to rise under abundant supply. The reduction of the slaughter weight by farmers will put pressure on the pig price, but the strength of the price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs needs attention. The LH2509 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - Main Contract Basis Situation: Against the background of falling spot prices, the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted weakly. When the pig price accelerated its decline in the later part of the week, the decline of the LH2509 contract was limited [2]. - Price Changes of Each Contract: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - Inter - monthly Spread Changes: Against the background of weak spot prices, the spreads of some contracts showed reverse arbitrage trends [8][11]. 2. Spot End - Pig Price and Slaughter Volume: The decrease in slaughter volume and the fall in pig prices indicate that the supply exceeds the demand, leading to the decline of pig prices [14]. - Regional Price Difference: The price in Henan region dropped significantly [16]. - Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs: The price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs adjusted strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it may weaken the farmers' willingness to reduce the weight of pigs [18]. - Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Difference: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference: The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen price difference for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - Farming Profit: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly positive [24]. - Slaughter Weight: The slaughter weight decreased slowly, and it will take some time to release the previous inventory pressure [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - Inventory of Reproductive Sows: At the end of April, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a flat month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows continued to increase in May [28]. - Sow Culling Situation: The price of culled sows was weak this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in May but remained at a low level [30]. - Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets: In May, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, corresponding to a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. - Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm: The price of 15kg piglets continued to fall this week, and the price of 50kg binary sows was stable with a weak trend [34]. 4. Slaughter End - Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The frozen product market gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices changed from bullish to neutral - bearish [36]. 5. Import End In April 2025, the pork import volume was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively small [39].