从供需看，中国创新药能从海外分成多少钱？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese innovative drug sector is poised to capitalize on the patent cliff faced by multinational corporations (MNCs), with a potential market space exceeding $240 billion due to the expiration of patents on 31 major drugs by 2037 [5][18] - It emphasizes that China has the largest number of innovative drug pipelines globally, particularly in cell therapy, ADCs, and bispecific antibodies, which positions it as a key player in the global market [5][32] - The report suggests that the ongoing trend of licensing out Chinese innovations to MNCs could lead to significant profit opportunities, estimating a net profit of approximately $8.2 billion from authorized projects between 2020 and 2025, translating to a potential market capitalization increase of $81.7 billion [5][46][47] Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 1.2% during the week of June 3-6, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.3 percentage points [4][48] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 8.3%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 9.9 percentage points [4][48] MNC Patent Cliff - The report identifies that 27 drugs with projected sales exceeding $4 billion in 2024 will face patent expiration by 2037, leading to a potential loss of approximately $244.3 billion for MNCs [18][19] - Specific drugs mentioned include Merck's Keytruda and Pfizer's Eliquis, which are expected to face significant sales declines post-patent expiration [19][20] Supply and Demand Dynamics - China leads globally in the number of innovative drug pipelines, particularly in cell therapy and ADCs, with 58% of these drugs currently in clinical phase I trials [32][33] - The report indicates that Chinese companies are involved in 716 research tracks, ranking first in development progress [32][33] Transaction Trends - The report highlights a significant increase in global pharmaceutical transactions, with the number of deals rising from 358 in 2015 to 743 in 2024, and total transaction value increasing from $56.9 billion to $187.4 billion [36][39] - Chinese companies accounted for 30% of global transaction value in 2024, with a total of $57.1 billion in deals [39][40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong overseas clinical progress and those with potential for significant licensing deals, including Innovent Biologics, Eddingpharm, and others [5][6] - It also recommends monitoring companies that have received approval for commercialization, such as BeiGene and Kingsoft Biopharma [5][6]