高硫旺季需求支撑，低硫近端供应充裕

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil spot window transactions are active with high transaction prices, supporting the rebound of high-sulfur spot premiums. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the return of Russian refineries from seasonal spring maintenance. Russia's high-sulfur exports remain stable for now. Mexico's high-sulfur exports are declining as the secondary production capacity of its refineries improves. The US-Iran negotiations have made no substantial progress, and high-sulfur exports from the Middle East are expected to decline in May. On the demand side, the seasonal power generation demand for high-sulfur fuel oil provides support, with high import demand from Egypt and Saudi Arabia remaining at a high level. - The spot premium of low-sulfur fuel oil is fluctuating, but the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil continues to increase while downstream demand remains weak. The operation of the FCC gasoline unit at Nigeria's Dangote refinery is still unstable, leading to a continuous supply of low-sulfur fuel oil. South Sudan's low-sulfur raw material supply is gradually returning to the level at the beginning of 2024, with 8 shipments of low-sulfur cargoes expected to be loaded in May and June. The first shipment of 600,000 barrels in May is expected to arrive in the Singapore-Malaysia region in late May. Al-Zour's low-sulfur exports have rebounded to the high level during normal refinery operations. In the Chinese market, the production plan for low-sulfur fuel oil in June is expected to increase, with sufficient supply and stable demand in the domestic market. - The trading strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach for unilateral trading, and a long position in the FU9-1 calendar spread when the price is low. There is no option trading recommendation. [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - High-sulfur fuel oil: The active spot window transactions and high prices support the rebound of spot premiums. Attention should be paid to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Russian refinery maintenance. Mexico's exports are declining, and Middle East exports are expected to fall in May. Seasonal power generation demand provides support. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium is fluctuating, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. Nigeria's Dangote refinery has a continuous supply, South Sudan's exports are recovering, Al-Zour's exports are at a high level, and China's production plan for June is expected to increase. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Go long on the FU9-1 calendar spread when the price is low. - Options: No recommendation. [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Gradual Return of Russian Refinery Capacity - The conflict has intensified, and the EU is considering new sanctions. Russian refinery capacity is gradually returning after spring maintenance, with an expected increase in oil product exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse in June. In the first week of June, Russia's high-sulfur exports decreased, and exports to Asia were temporarily halted. [6] 2. Mexico's High-Sulfur Supply Drops to the Level Before the Commissioning of the Olmeca Refinery - The Olmeca refinery's processing volume has stabilized, and its secondary devices are operating smoothly. Other refineries' operating conditions have also changed. In the first week of June, Mexico's high-sulfur exports were around the average level, and total exports in May decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [9] 3. Lack of Substantial Progress in US-Iran Negotiations and Diversion of High-Sulfur Supply in the Middle East Due to Power Generation Demand - The US-Iran negotiations have been ongoing, but there has been no substantial progress. Sanctions on Iran and Russia continue. Saudi Arabia and Iran's summer power generation demand is expected to divert their external supply. In May, high-sulfur exports from the Middle East decreased as expected, and Iran's exports remained at a low level. [12] 4. High-Sulfur Power Generation Demand Enters the Peak Season in the Second and Third Quarters - Egypt's summer power generation demand provides support, with an increase in fuel oil import tenders. South Asia's power generation demand increases in the second quarter. Middle East's high-sulfur power generation demand has increased in advance, with Saudi Arabia increasing imports from Russia. [15] 5. Chinese Refineries' Recent Purchase意愿 May Decline; Feedstock Demand in India and the UAE Increases - Sanctions on Iran and Russia continue, affecting China's fuel oil import costs. China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in April remained stable. India's feedstock demand rebounded in May, and the UAE's Ruwais refinery has recent feedstock demand. [18] 6. High-Sulfur Marine Fuel Demand Remains Stable, with Marginal Increases from the Steady Growth in the Number of Ships with Desulfurization Towers - The number of ships with desulfurization towers is growing steadily. Singapore's high-sulfur marine fuel sales in April increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year, and the market share of high-sulfur fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah port also increased. [21] 7. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Sudan's Port Exports are Disturbed by Air Strikes, but South Sudan's Export Tenders Continue - South Sudan's external raw material supply is gradually recovering. After the port was attacked, exports were temporarily suspended and then resumed. There have been multiple export tenders in May and June, with shipments expected to arrive in the Singapore-Malaysia region in May and June. [24] 8. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Exports from the Middle East's Al-Zour Refinery Remain at a High Level, and Supply to the Pan-Singapore Region Increases Month-on-Month - The Al-Zour refinery has issued new tenders for low-sulfur fuel oil sales. Exports have remained at a high level since March, and exports to the Pan-Singapore region have continued to recover. Attention should be paid to the return of South Sudan's low-sulfur heavy crude oil supply. [27] 9. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Nigeria's Near-Term Low-Sulfur Supply is Abundant, All Directed to Singapore - The FCC gasoline unit at the Dangote refinery is still unstable, resulting in a continuous supply of low-sulfur fuel oil. The refinery has issued multiple tenders for low-sulfur fuel oil sales. The Harcourt refinery is undergoing maintenance, and the Warri refinery has no crude oil quota. In May, Nigeria's low-sulfur exports were all directed to Singapore, and exports in the first week of June were at a high level. [28] 10. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Demand Lacks Specific Drivers, Marine Fuel Demand is Stable, and Power Generation Economics are Inferior to Natural Gas - Singapore's low-sulfur marine fuel sales in April were stable, with a marginal decline in market share. Fujairah's low-sulfur marine fuel sales in March increased. In Italy, the share of MGO in marine fuel has increased under the influence of ECA. [33] 11. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil in the Chinese Market: China's Bonded Low-Sulfur Production Remains Stable at Around 1 Million Tons - China has issued a second batch of low-sulfur fuel oil export quotas, which are currently abundant. In April, domestic refineries' bonded low-sulfur marine fuel production increased. The production plan for May is expected to decline slightly compared to April. [36] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Fuel Oil Spot - Includes price trends of Brent crude oil, high-sulfur fuel oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as price spreads between different fuel oils and Brent crude oil. [39][40][41] High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Interregional and Intertemporal Spreads - Includes ARA Brent Crack spreads, Singapore high-sulfur M1-M2 spreads, and HSFO380 spot premiums. [46][47][51] Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Interregional and Intervarietal Spreads - Includes spreads between different low-sulfur fuel oils and GO, as well as Singapore low-sulfur M1-M2 spreads and spot premiums. [52][53][56] Natural Gas-Fuel Oil Price Ratio - Compares the equal-heat-value prices of different fuels, including Singapore 380, Singapore 180, Singapore 0.5%, JKM, GO10ppm ARA, and TTF. [59][60] Interregional Freight Reference - Shows freight rates for different routes, such as Russia to Singapore, Rotterdam to Singapore, and Indonesia to Japan. [61][62] Singapore Bunkering Spreads - Explains the definitions of MOPS, Ex-wharf, and Delivered prices and shows the spreads between them for high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils. [63][64][65] Inventory Structure - Provides inventory data for Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, the US, and Japan, including weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. [66] Northwest European Inventory Structure - Includes inventory data for ARA gasoline, diesel, and refined oil products. [69][70] US Gulf Inventory Structure - Includes inventory data for US gasoline, diesel, Cushing crude oil, and commercial crude oil. [71][72] Terminal Sales Structure - In April, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. High-sulfur marine fuel sales increased, while low-sulfur marine fuel sales decreased slightly. [74]