商业贸易行业研究：外卖出海空间广阔，Keeta出海掘金进行时

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The Middle East and Brazil exhibit significant population dividends, with the food delivery market size continuing to grow [2][3] - The penetration rate and ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) are driving steady growth in the food delivery market in these regions [2][3] - Keeta's entry into the Middle East and Brazil is supported by favorable policies and a strong local market presence [2][3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Growth in the Middle East and Brazil - The food delivery market in Saudi Arabia is projected to reach 10.78 billion USD in 2024, growing by 17.8% year-on-year, with user numbers reaching 21.2 million, a 15.2% increase [2][31] - The GCC's food delivery market is expected to exceed 16.5 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [2][31] - Brazil's online food delivery market is anticipated to reach 18.6 billion USD in 2024, with a growth rate of 16.9% [2][39] 2. Competitive Landscape in the Middle East and Brazil - In the Middle East, Jahez and HungerStation dominate the Saudi market, holding approximately 70% market share [3][46] - Keeta, a subsidiary of Meituan, entered the Saudi market in 2024 and aims to capture market share through aggressive subsidies and a low commission model [3][4] - In Brazil, iFood leads the market with an 80% share, while Aaiqfome focuses on smaller cities to avoid direct competition [4][56] 3. Keeta's Strategy and Potential for Replication - Keeta's success in Hong Kong is attributed to its localized strategies and technological innovations, which may be replicable in overseas markets [5][6] - The company has implemented a "one billion rewards" subsidy plan to attract price-sensitive users and has optimized its delivery efficiency [5][6] 4. Profitability Potential in Overseas Markets - The report estimates that the overseas profit potential for Keeta in the Middle East and Brazil could exceed 10 billion USD [6][7] - Current profit margins for local platforms in the Middle East suggest a favorable environment for Keeta's expansion [6][7] 5. Policy Support for Market Expansion - Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 emphasizes economic diversification and digital transformation, providing a conducive environment for foreign investment in food delivery services [2][44] - The government is actively promoting digital services through tax incentives and infrastructure investments, which benefit companies like Keeta [2][44]