锌：供应端逐渐放量，锌价偏弱震荡

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The supply side of zinc is gradually increasing, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of zinc concentrate in May is expected to remain loose, and the processing fee may be slightly increased. The supply of refined zinc in June is expected to be above 590,000 tons. The current zinc consumption is in the off - season, but the "trade - in" policy has a certain boost. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventory continues to accumulate [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Industrial Supply and Demand - Mine End: In May, domestic northern mines are expected to complete resumption. Domestic zinc concentrate production continues to be released. In April, the import volume of zinc concentrate increased by 37.6% month - on - month to 494,700 physical tons. The import window opened occasionally in May, and the import of zinc concentrate is expected to remain at a high level. The supply of domestic zinc concentrate in May is expected to remain loose, and the processing fee may be slightly increased [4] - Smelting End: The current processing fee still has room to increase, and the by - product income is relatively considerable. Smelters are still profitable. Some smelters that had maintenance recently have resumed production, and some have increased production. The domestic refined zinc output in June is expected to be above 590,000 tons. There are still zinc ingots arriving at the port that were locked in price before [4] - Consumption: The current zinc consumption is in the off - season, but the "trade - in" policy has a certain boost. Attention should be paid to the consumption of infrastructure, automobiles, and home appliances [4] - Inventory Data: As of June 5, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions of SMM was 79,300 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons compared with May 29 and an increase of 1,900 tons compared with June 3. The LME zinc inventory on June 6 was 137,000 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons compared with May 30 [4] - Trading Strategy - Single - side: Fluctuate weakly in the range, try to short the far - month contract when the price is high - Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being - Derivatives Strategy: Wait and see for the time being [4] 2. Market Data - The report mentions spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, warrants, and LME inventory by region, but no specific data analysis is provided [6][11][14] 3. Fundamental Data - Zinc Ore Supply - Production: In March, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. Among them, overseas production was 678,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.21%; China's production was 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. In April 2025, SMM zinc concentrate production was 297,700 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.53%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.62%. In May 2025, the expected production was 318,700 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.05% [25] - Import: In April 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates was 494,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37.64% and a year - on - year increase of 72.63%. The import window opened occasionally in April, and the zinc concentrate locked in price when the window opened before arrived at the port. The import volume increased significantly. The import window opened at the beginning of May, and the profit was considerable. It is expected that the import volume of zinc concentrate in May will remain at a high level [33] - Total Supply: In April 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc concentrate was about 520,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%; from January to April, the cumulative total supply was 1.8439 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.92% [36] - Processing Fee: In June, the monthly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate rose to 3,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,050 yuan/ton compared with December 2024; the monthly processing fee of imported Zn50 zinc concentrate rose to 55 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 95 US dollars/dry ton compared with December 2024. On June 6, the weekly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3,600 yuan/ton, and that of imported Zn50 zinc concentrate was 45 US dollars/dry ton [39] - Refined Zinc Supply - Global Production: In March, the global refined zinc production was 1.1219 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.91%. Among them, overseas production was 541,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.65%; China's production was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.19%. The global refined zinc demand was 1.0982 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%. The global refined zinc surplus was 23,700 tons, and the shortage pattern has been reversed [43] - Domestic Production: In April, the domestic smelter operating rate was 90.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38% and a year - on - year increase of 8.58%. In May, the domestic refined zinc output was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in June will increase by 7.43% month - on - month to 590,200 tons [46][47] - Import: In April 2025, the import of refined zinc was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.5%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 129,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.44%. In April, the export of refined zinc was 2,500 tons, and the net import was 25,700 tons. In June, the supply of domestic refined zinc is expected to increase due to the resumption and production increase of smelters that had maintenance before and the continuous inflow of imported zinc ingots locked in price before [49] - Downstream Consumption - The report mentions the operating rate of primary processing enterprises, inventory of primary processing enterprises, real estate construction data, infrastructure investment, domestic automobile production, and domestic white - goods production, but no specific data analysis is provided [57][68][77][83][85]