中辉期货热卷早报-20250609

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment ratings provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - The macro - sentiment improvement has limited impact on the supply - demand of the black - series commodities. Different varieties have different trends: steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) may return to range - bound operation; iron ore is short - term bullish; coke and coking coal will likely be in a volatile market; ferroalloys (manganese silicon and ferrosilicon) are expected to run weakly with limited macro - boost [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Rebar: In a state of weak supply and demand, strong exports ease the supply pressure of high hot - metal production, but there is still some shipping pressure on the raw material side. After the emotional trading fades, it will return to range - bound operation within [2940, 2980] [1][4][5]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Production is rising, apparent demand is falling, inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase. Exports may decline later, and the overall surplus in the black - chain suppresses the market. It will also return to range - bound operation within [3050, 3090] [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, the demand for iron ore is still supported by steel mill profits, although hot - metal production is decreasing. Supply has increased in both arrivals and shipments, while port and steel mill inventories have decreased. Near - term supply - demand is slightly weak. With positive news from China - US talks, the short - term market is bullish. Unilateral short positions should be reduced, and the price range is [690, 730] [1][8][9]. Coke - Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts, reducing coke - producer profits. Although there is some production reduction, overall production is still high, and the operating rate is at a high level. Hot - metal production above 240 million tons guarantees certain demand, but steel mills are cautious in purchasing coke. The overall inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply - demand is loose. After the macro - sentiment trading fades, it will return to a volatile market within [1320, 1350] [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal production is still at a high level, and there is no large - scale production reduction at the current price. Mine inventories are rising, and the upstream shipping pressure persists. The supply - demand is loose. The macro - sentiment boost is limited, and the rebound is unsustainable. It will return to a volatile market within [760, 790] [1][13][14]. Ferroalloys - Manganese Silicon: Although hot - metal production is high, actual demand may be under pressure due to the off - season. The cost support is insufficient, and inventory pressure may increase after factory复产. Before the fundamentals improve significantly, the price will be under pressure, with a price range of [5420, 5650]. - Ferrosilicon: There is an expectation of cost - support weakening. With production resumption in the producing areas, supply may increase, and factory inventories are relatively high. The overall upward driving force is insufficient, and it is expected to run weakly within [5000, 5200] [1][16][17].