铁矿石月报：高炉检修增加铁矿承压运行-20250609

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the overall blast furnace production was relatively strong, but the number of blast furnace overhauls increased in the second half of the month, and the molten iron output has been declining for four consecutive weeks. In June, the construction industry entered the off - season, and the drag from the real estate sector intensified. Steel mills will actively reduce their loads, and the molten iron output will continue to decline [1][6][9]. - In May, the total shipment volume of iron ore on the supply side was stable, with an 8% month - on - month increase and a slight year - on - year decrease. In June, due to the fiscal year end rush, overseas shipments are expected to increase slightly. From a seasonal perspective and considering shipping schedules, there is a possibility of a small increase in both shipments and arrivals in June [1][14]. - In the next month, both supply and demand will be weak, and the iron ore price will be under pressure. The supply pressure will increase, and the inventory at ports may start to accumulate slightly in June. The demand for molten iron has been declining for four consecutive weeks, and the terminal demand in the off - season has weakened. The iron ore price is expected to move downward [1][37]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In May, the iron ore futures price showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weakening and volatile trend. In the first half of the month, the iron ore price was strong, supported by the continuous increase in molten iron output and positive progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations. In the second half of the month, the price declined due to the expectation of the off - season for terminal demand and the decline in molten iron output. In June, the market sentiment was cautious due to the weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in supply [6]. - In May, the spot price in Qingdao Port declined, while the Platts Index price was relatively strong. As of June 4, the Platts Iron Ore Price Index 62 Qingdao Port was at $96.35 per ton, a month - on - month decrease of $2.8 or 2.8%. The price differences between high - and low - grade ores weakened, and the spread between 09 - 01 contracts widened slightly [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Iron Water Output Declined from a High Level - In May, the blast furnace production was relatively strong, with the average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills at 244 tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. As of June 6, the molten iron output dropped to 241.8 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 tons, and it has been declining for four consecutive weeks. In June, due to the off - season for construction and the slowdown in export growth, steel mill overhauls will increase, and the molten iron output is expected to decline further [9]. - Overseas, the demand for iron ore showed a weakening trend. The overseas consumption of iron elements decreased slightly this year, mainly affected by the slowdown in economic growth. The crude steel production of major iron ore importing countries declined significantly [10]. 2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments were Stable, with an Expected Increase in June - On June 6, the Western Range Iron Ore Project jointly developed by Rio Tinto and Baowu officially started production, with a designed annual capacity of 25 million tons [13]. - In May, the total shipment volume of iron ore on the supply side was stable, with an 8% month - on - month increase and a slight year - on - year decrease. In June, due to the fiscal year end rush, overseas shipments are expected to increase slightly. However, the pressure on iron ore prices restricts the development of high - cost mines [14]. - Last month, the arrival volume decreased slightly. From January to April 2025, the national iron ore imports decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, with a significant decline in non - mainstream imports [15]. 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - As of early June, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.26 million tons, a decrease of 4.75 million tons compared to the beginning of last month and a decrease of 11.01 million tons compared to the same period last year. In June, the arrival volume is expected to increase, and the port inventory may start to accumulate slightly [23]. 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In May, the steel mill inventory of iron ore continued to decline and remained at a low level. As of early June, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 86.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68 million tons. Steel mills will actively reduce their raw material inventories to avoid risks [27]. 2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In May, the production of domestic mines continued to contract, both month - on - month and year - on - year. In the short term, the production reduction trend may continue. In the long - term, the production reduction trend may continue due to the peak of crude steel production and safety policies [28][31]. 2.6 Freight Rates - As of June 5, the BDI index was at 1626 points, a month - on - month increase of 15%. The freight rates for the routes from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao increased compared to the beginning of last month [33]. 3. Market Outlook - On the demand side, the molten iron output has been declining for four consecutive weeks. In June, the construction industry entered the off - season, and the drag from the real estate sector intensified. Steel mills will actively reduce their loads, and the molten iron output will continue to decline [36]. - On the supply side, in May, the total shipment volume of iron ore on the supply side was stable, with an 8% month - on - month increase and a slight year - on - year decrease. In June, due to the fiscal year end rush, overseas shipments are expected to increase slightly. In the next month, both supply and demand will be weak, and the iron ore price is expected to move downward [37].