美股策略周报：就业稳定盈利双位数增长，大盘历史新高指日可待-20250609

Economic Data - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, exceeding the expectation of 126,000 but lower than the previous value of 177,000[12] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, matching expectations and previous values[12] - Average hourly earnings in the private non-farm sector rose to $36.24, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, both better than expectations[12] Market Sentiment - According to the AAII survey, 41.4% of retail investors are bearish on the stock market, while 32.7% are bullish, resulting in a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 0.79, consistent with previous values[16] - The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) has a weekly moving average of 501, showing a downward trend overall[20] - The Fear and Greed Index moved from a 'neutral' to a 'greed' zone, closing at 63 points, indicating high market sentiment[20] Global Market Performance - Global equity markets rose by 1.4% last week, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets (2.2% vs. 1.3%)[26] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.5%, while the Tech Giants Index rose by 2.1%, outperforming the broader market[26] - Among 36 secondary sectors, 29 sectors saw gains, with significant increases in steel and semiconductors[28] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E (TTM) ratio for the S&P 500 is 26.9, which is above the ten-year average of 24.6 and at the 80th percentile[36] - The dynamic P/E ratio slightly increased from 22.8 to 22.9, a rise of 0.7%, with a significant gap of approximately 15% from the recent peak of 26.4[36] - The forecasted EPS for the S&P 500 decreased slightly from $259.58 to $259.00, a change of about -0.2%[36] Investment Strategy - The easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China has positively impacted market sentiment, with the S&P 500 recovering from previous declines related to tariff changes[3] - The report suggests maintaining a diversified asset allocation strategy, recommending investments in tech giants, NASDAQ 100, ARKK, Bitcoin, and gold ETFs[3]