化工新材料行业简评：碳纤维行业整合加速，关注具有规模和技术优势的龙头企业

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing structural contradictions leading to accelerated consolidation. Global carbon fiber production capacity is expected to reach 309,000 tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 9.23% in 2025, but the overall capacity utilization rate is below 70% [7]. - The demand for carbon fiber is anticipated to rebound in 2024, driven by sectors such as domestic large aircraft and low-altitude economy, with wind energy and aerospace markets showing significant growth [7]. - Domestic carbon fiber companies are focusing on three main application areas: aerospace and military, high-performance industrial applications, and low-cost industrial applications, with key players like Guangwei Composites and Zhongfu Shenying making notable advancements [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The carbon fiber market is characterized by increasing competition and a shift in regional development, with the U.S. expected to capture 40% of the global wind energy carbon fiber market [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The exit of major players like Dow and the closure of facilities by companies such as SGL Carbon indicate a trend towards industry consolidation [7]. - The demand for carbon fiber in wind energy is projected to grow by 120% in 2024, while aerospace and military applications are expected to see a 20% increase [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with scale and technological advantages, such as Guangwei Composites, Zhongfu Shenying, Zhongjian Technology, and Jilin Chemical Fiber [8].