锌月报：强供弱需主导，锌价承压震荡-20250609

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US economy shows signs of weakness, but inflation continues to decline and employment remains resilient. The Fed's policy stance remains cautious. The intensifying game between the US administration and the judiciary has increased the uncertainty of the global trade pattern. In China, the lack of endogenous economic momentum and the long - term impact of the China - US trade game pose great pressure on the export outlook, leading to rising expectations for increased fiscal policies [4][82]. - The supply of zinc concentrates has shifted from tight to loose globally. Overseas new mine capacity has been released smoothly, and domestic raw material inflows have increased. The overall supply remains loose, with both domestic and foreign processing fees rising month - on - month. In June, the supply of refined zinc recovered significantly and is expected to remain high in July [4][82]. - On the demand side, the local debt resolution process restricts the efficiency of infrastructure funds, and infrastructure performance is "stable but not strong". The demand in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors has weakened marginally. Thanks to the tariff suspension and policy support, the automotive and home appliance industries maintain their prosperity, and the export of galvanized sheets remains resilient [4][82]. - Overall, the drag effect of anti - globalization tariff measures on the global economy is emerging, and its uncertainty exacerbates market sentiment fluctuations. The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. The market is shifting from "strong reality" to "weak expectation", and an inventory inflection point is looming. Zinc prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [4][83]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Zinc Market Review - In May 2025, the main contract price of SHFE zinc oscillated in a low - level range. Affected by multiple factors, the zinc price did not change its oscillating trend, closing at 22,225 yuan/ton with a monthly decline of 0.96%. LME zinc showed a trend of rising first and then falling, closing at 2,629.5 US dollars/ton with a monthly increase of 1.9% [9]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US - US economic data has weakened, with manufacturing and non - manufacturing expansion slowing. Retail sales and durable goods orders have declined. However, the employment market remains resilient, and inflation pressure has eased. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts, and the market generally expects a rate cut in September. The tariff policy is full of uncertainties [12][13]. 2.2 Eurozone - The Eurozone's recovery is weak, with the manufacturing PMI contracting. GDP growth is lower than expected, and inflation continues to decline. The ECB cut interest rates in June, and the market expects another rate cut in September. The EU - US tariff negotiation is tense, adding challenges to the Eurozone's economic recovery [15]. 2.3 China - China's economic data in April mostly declined, and the impact of tariffs is beginning to show. Although the export in April exceeded expectations, the manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, and the non - manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, indicating insufficient domestic demand. The market expects increased fiscal policies [16][17]. 3. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate supply shift: In March 2025, global mine zinc production increased. Overseas production increased by 4.4% year - on - year from January to March, and China's production increased by 2.3%. Although there were short - term disturbances overseas, the impact on production was limited. In China, the production of zinc concentrates in April was slightly higher than expected, and it is expected to increase in May. The annual domestic zinc ore increment is expected to be 90,000 metal tons [27][29]. - Zinc concentrate processing fees and imports: In June 2025, domestic and foreign processing fees increased month - on - month. In April, the import of zinc concentrates exceeded expectations, and it is expected to remain at a high level in May [34][35]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - Overseas refineries: Global refined zinc production in March 2025 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Overseas refineries have a situation of both production cuts and expansions, and the risk of supply disruptions still exists [37]. - Domestic refined zinc: In May 2025, domestic refined zinc production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to increase significantly in June. In April, the import of refined zinc increased slightly month - on - month, and the import window opened in late April [43][44]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - Overseas terminal consumption: In March 2025, global refined zinc consumption increased. In the overseas market, the real estate and automotive sectors showed short - term recoveries, but the medium - and long - term consumption prospects are unclear due to factors such as high interest rates and tariff uncertainties [47][48]. - Domestic initial - stage enterprises and exports: In early May, the operating rates of domestic initial - stage enterprises were relatively stable. In June, there is an expectation of a slight decline due to seasonal factors. The export of galvanized sheets has continued its strong momentum since 2024, but the growth of new export orders may be limited in May [59][60]. - Domestic terminal consumption: Infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable, but there is a seasonal decline expectation in June - July. The real estate market remains weak but shows signs of weak recovery. The automotive industry maintains a high level of prosperity, and the home appliance industry shows resilience but faces medium - and long - term slowdown pressure. The demand in the photovoltaic sector may weaken marginally [61][70]. 3.4 Inventory - LME inventory continued to decline from a high level in May, and the domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. The inventory inflection point is approaching as the supply recovers strongly in June and is expected to remain high in July [79]. Group 4: Summary and Outlook - The macro - environment is complex, with the US economic situation and trade uncertainties affecting the global market. China's economic export faces pressure, and there are expectations for increased fiscal policies. The supply of zinc is abundant, while the demand is weak, and zinc prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [82][83].