中孚实业：破局启新程，逐梦铸华章-20250609

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has successfully restructured and improved its profitability after facing significant losses and a risk of delisting in previous years. It has a solid market position and a well-established industrial chain in coal, electricity, aluminum, and aluminum processing [1][14]. - The company is focusing on green transformation and expanding its electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which is expected to enhance its profitability due to lower electricity costs in the Sichuan region starting in 2025 [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of the green aluminum pricing mechanism and the company's potential to gain cost pricing power and market access in the European and American green supply chains [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company was established in 1993 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2002. It has a comprehensive industrial chain with capacities of 2.25 million tons of coal, 750,000 tons of aluminum, and 690,000 tons of aluminum processing [1][14]. - After a significant restructuring in 2021, the company returned to profitability in 2021 and successfully lifted its delisting risk in 2022 [1][14]. Section 2: Electrolytic Aluminum and Green Transformation - In September 2023, the company acquired a 25% stake in Zhongfu Aluminum, increasing its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 630,000 tons, with plans to reach 750,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The company anticipates a decrease in electricity costs for its electrolytic aluminum production in Sichuan starting in 2025, which will enhance its profitability [3]. Section 3: Green Transition and High-Quality Development - The report discusses the impact of carbon reduction policies and the evolving pricing logic for aluminum, emphasizing the importance of green transformation for future competitiveness [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the green aluminum market, with expectations of significant growth in profitability from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Section 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.8 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.1, 6.3, and 5.5, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [4][5].