Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not improved significantly, and the upside of the futures market is limited [1]. - Gold may experience a short - term correction, with a mid - term high - level oscillation pattern, and the divergence between gold and silver may occur [1]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 2250 level [3]. - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 1190 level [4]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term under the current tight - balance supply - demand situation [5]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of live pigs is supply - strong and demand - weak, and 09 - 01 contract reverse spread and hedging sales are recommended [6]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. - Domestic soybeans are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [7]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate widely with a slightly bullish trend in the medium term [7]. - Silver may face short - term correction pressure and then oscillate with a slightly bullish trend [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 4750 level for the 09 contract [8]. - Crude oil prices are supported in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level in the short term [10]. - PTA supply - demand is turning weaker, and it is recommended to wait and see for the right time when crude oil weakens [11]. 3. Summaries by Product Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.36% (- 0.30%), coke daily output is 66.52 (- 0.27), coke inventory is 127.01 (+ 15.63), coking coal inventory is 818.92 (- 27.41), and coking coal available days are 9.3 (- 0.27 days) [1]. - Coking enterprises are in a state of small profit or slight loss, and the market has started the third round of price cuts [1]. Gold - Fed official's remarks reduce the expectation of Fed rate cuts, the US dollar index rebounds, and gold experiences a short - term correction [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2315 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), port inventory is 58.1 tons (+ 5.8 tons), production enterprise inventory is 37.05 tons (+ 1.55 tons), and orders to be delivered are 26.22 tons (+ 1.23 tons) [3]. - Methanol operating rate is 88.14% (+ 0.88%), and downstream capacity utilization is 72.96% (+ 1.83%) [3]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1375 yuan/ton (+ 3 yuan/ton), weekly output is 70.41 tons (+ 2.77%), and manufacturer inventory is 162.7 tons (+ 0.17%) [4]. - Float glass operating rate is 75.68% (- 0.34%), average price is 1206 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton), and inventory is 6975.4 million heavy - boxes (+ 3.09%) [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14400.31 tons (- 69.27 tons), and daily port clearance volume is 329.06 tons (- 9.72 tons) [5]. - Overseas supply growth is lower than expected, and some mines may increase shipments at the end of the fiscal or quarterly period [5]. Live Pigs - As of June 6, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg (- 0.01 kg), and the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.01% (- 0.76%) [6]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is 39.5 yuan/head (+ 3.39 yuan/head), and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 94.98 yuan/head (+ 3.21 yuan/head) [6]. Palm Oil - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% [6]. - The domestic price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is more inverted, and the spot basis is stable with a downward trend [6]. Soybeans - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales volume has reached 64% of the expected output, and for the next year, producers have pre - sold 10.8% of the expected output [7]. - Domestic soybeans are affected by tight supply and weak demand, with a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. Treasury Bonds - From January to April, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the operating income reached 25.8 trillion yuan [7]. - The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Silver - In May, the non - farm payrolls increased by 13.9 million, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [8]. - The short - term bullish sentiment for silver has weakened [8]. PVC - The capacity utilization rate is 80.72% (+ 2.53%), and social inventory is 58.88 tons (- 1.48%) [8]. - The average gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC producers is - 426 yuan/ton (+ 121 yuan/ton), and that of ethylene - based producers is - 520 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [8]. Crude Oil - As of June 6, the number of US oil drilling platforms decreased by 19 to 442 [9]. - Geopolitical factors and low inventory support oil prices in the short term [9]. Rubber - Supply is expected to increase, and demand shows no signs of improvement [10]. - Rubber has experienced three consecutive rounds of inventory reduction [10]. PTA - PX CFR is reported at 825 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N spread is 262 US dollars/ton [11]. - The PTA industry load is rising, and polyester inventory remains high [11].
今日早评-20250609
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-06-09 05:57