Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market's bullish sentiment was boosted, and bullish funds actively entered the market, causing the Dalian soybean meal futures to rise significantly. However, as China has not yet purchased new - season US soybeans, the changes in subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations need to be monitored. The US soybean sowing season has been relatively smooth, with a good initial report on crop quality, and overall normal weather in the production areas, but the precipitation forecast in the Midwest is slightly dry, which may bring phased growth pressure. Attention should be paid to the area survey report and the change in crop quality at the end of June. Brazil's soybean export peak has passed, and the soybean premium has rebounded. Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete, and a bumper harvest is established. - Domestically, oil mills have sufficient purchases of Brazilian soybeans for the June - August shipping schedule. Attention should be paid to the soybean purchase dynamics for the fourth quarter. The arrival of soybeans in China is still ongoing, with an estimated arrival of over 10 million tons in June - July and 8 - 10 million tons in August - September, resulting in a generally loose short - term supply. The operating rate of oil mills remains high, and domestic soybean and soybean meal are still in the process of inventory accumulation, with spot prices gradually declining and basis continuing to weaken. The提货 volume of soybean meal from oil mills has increased significantly, providing short - term support for market demand. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has continued to rise but is at a low level compared to the same period, and there is still a need for restocking in the future. - As new - season US soybeans for the fourth quarter have not been purchased, the call between Chinese and US leaders may provide an expectation of improvement for subsequent trade negotiations, boosting the domestic futures market. Attention should be paid to subsequent trade negotiations, the weather in the US soybean production areas, the release of USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Domestically, supply has increased, putting pressure on spot prices, while feed enterprises'提货 and restocking have increased, and inventory has gradually recovered. Technically, the futures market has formed a bottom structure, and long - term there are opportunities to go long on dips. Overall, in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [3][74][75] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - Since May, soybean meal has shown a weak oscillation followed by a small - scale rebound. At the end of May, the 09 - contract of soybean meal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 2968 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.64%. In the first half of May, the market was mainly influenced by the increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in the operating rate of oil mills, leading to an increase in soybean meal supply and a decline in spot prices. The futures market was weakly oscillating due to uncertainties in Sino - US relations. In the second half of May, the market was affected by the potential soybean production reduction in Argentina due to heavy rain and the impact of short - term heavy precipitation on the sowing progress in the US soybean production areas. Bullish funds pushed up the futures market, and the weather model predicted a dry and less - rainy growing season for US soybeans, injecting a certain weather premium into the market. However, due to the sufficient supply of soybeans in the past two months, the upward space was limited in the short term [9] 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the new - season soybean balance sheet released by the US Department of Agriculture in May, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 426.817 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.41%, showing a slowdown. Global export demand is 188.432 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. The crushing demand is 366.462 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.48%. The ending inventory is 124.33 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year - on - year, and the stock - to - consumption ratio has dropped to 29.32%, indicating a slight tightening of the global supply - demand situation [12] 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - In the 2024/2025 season, the export demand for US soybeans was raised by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, leading to a decline in ending inventory to 350 million bushels and a stock - to - consumption ratio of 7.98%. In the 2025/2026 season, the sown area is 83.5 million acres, the yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, and the production is 4.34 billion bushels. The US crushing capacity continues to expand, with an annual increase of 70 million bushels to 2.49 billion bushels, and the export demand is slightly reduced to 1.815 billion bushels. The ending inventory of new - season soybeans has dropped to 295 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 6.68%, indicating a tightening supply situation [16] 2.3 Weather in US Soybean Production Areas - As of the week ending June 1, 2025, the sowing progress of US soybeans was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%. The emergence rate was 63%, and the good - quality rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. As of the week ending May 27, about 17% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas will be 80 - 90 mm, which is beneficial for the initial growth of soybeans, and the sowing season is expected to end smoothly [18] 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In April 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels, higher than the market expectation. From September 2024 to April 2025, the cumulative US soybean crushing volume was 1.540098 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.24%. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [22] 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending May 22, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 146,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 48.46 million tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current year was 22.48 million tons [23] 2.6 Brazilian Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2024/2025 season, Brazil's soybean production remained at 169 million tons, export demand was reduced by 1 million tons to 104.5 million tons, and ending inventory increased to 33.31 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, and ending inventory is 34.16 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 19.6%. In April 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 15.27 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to April was 37.45 million tons [32][38][39] 2.7 Brazilian Soybean Harvest - As of the week ending May 24, 2025, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 99.5%, and the harvest work was basically completed [41] 2.8 Argentine Soybean Situation - In the 2024/2025 season, Argentina's soybean production remained at 49 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, production was slightly reduced to 48.5 million tons, crushing demand was raised to 43 million tons, ending inventory was 25.45 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 46.27% [44] 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Products - In April 2025, China's soybean import volume was 6.08 million tons, lower than the market expectation, mainly due to tightened customs clearance policies. From October 2024 to April 2025, China's cumulative soybean import volume was 46.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.68 million tons. The estimated arrival volume in May was over 12 million tons, and in June - July it was over 10 million tons. In April 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 489,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.388 million tons. The rapeseed meal import volume in April was 289,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.086 million tons [49] 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week ending May 30, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.8288 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 298,000 tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 3.6929 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 7.054 million tons. The daily average trading volume of soybean meal in the week was 82,580 tons, and the daily average提货 volume was 186,080 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2682 million tons, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 5.99 days [52] 3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 42.1%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 12.1% [61] 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - Internationally, after the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market sentiment was boosted, but attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations. The US soybean sowing season was smooth, but the Midwest may face growth pressure. Brazil's export peak has passed, and Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete. Domestically, the supply of soybeans is loose in the short term, and oil mills and feed enterprises are in the process of inventory adjustment. In the future, attention should be paid to trade negotiations, weather conditions, USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Technically, there are long - term opportunities to go long on dips, and in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [74][75]
豆粕月报：等待驱动到来，连粕或震荡偏强-20250609
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-09 05:57