云顶马来西亚：资本配置仍是一个担忧

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Genting Malaysia (GENM) with a price target cut from RM2.30 to RM1.89, reflecting an 18% decrease due to weaker growth expectations in Malaysia and the consolidation of Empire Resorts [1][4][5]. Core Views - The acquisition of Empire Resorts is expected to lead to higher losses for GENM starting in Q2 2025, with Empire's business trends remaining sluggish despite significant investments [2][3]. - The upcoming New York full-scale casino license opportunity presents uncertainty due to its high capital expenditure of US$4 billion and potential dilution from online gaming legalization [1][8]. - The dividend per share (DPS) is unlikely to increase in the near term as GENM may prioritize cash preservation for the license bidding process, with a projected DPS of RM0.10 for 2025 [3][28]. Financial Summary - The report projects a revenue increase to RM12.294 billion for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [21][33]. - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach RM3.153 billion in 2025, reflecting an 8.3% increase [21][33]. - Net profit estimates for 2025 have been cut by 7-9% due to higher depreciation and interest expenses associated with the Empire acquisition [21][22]. Valuation Metrics - GENM is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.0x for 2025, which is 1 standard deviation below its two-year average [1][26]. - The dividend yield is projected at 5.3%, which is lower than the two-year average of approximately 6.3% [25][29]. - The report indicates a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.4x as of December 2024, suggesting limited room for dividend increases [3][5].