云顶集团：因增长势头放缓下调评级至中性-20250609

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Genting (GENT) from Buy to Neutral, with a new price target of RM3.10, reflecting a 47% reduction from the previous target of RM5.90 [1][4][5]. Core Views - The growth momentum for Genting is expected to fade in 2025 due to a high base in Malaysia and a slow recovery in Las Vegas, which may limit dividend flows from Genting Malaysia (GENM) to Genting [1][11]. - The outlook in Singapore is improving, which may provide some downside support for Genting [1][11]. - The report forecasts flattish earnings for FY25, with a projected net profit of RM880 million and a diluted EPS of RM0.23, reflecting a 52% decrease from previous estimates [3][6][30]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Genting's revenue is projected to reach RM29.332 billion in FY25, with a slight increase to RM30.387 billion in FY26 [7][32]. - EBITDA for FY25 is revised down by 18% to RM8.664 billion, with expectations of moderate growth due to challenges in Malaysia and Las Vegas [3][22]. - The net earnings forecast for FY25 is RM880 million, a significant drop from previous estimates [6][22]. Valuation Metrics - Genting is currently trading at a 66% discount to its NAV, which aligns with its two-year average [1][26]. - The report assigns a 50% discount to Genting's NAV, slightly lower than its two-year average, reflecting the removal of regulatory overhangs [4][27]. Dividend Expectations - The expected dividend per share (DPS) for FY25 is RM0.11, implying a dividend yield of approximately 3.6% [30][31]. - The report indicates that the dividend yield is below the two-year average of 4.4%, reflecting rising uncertainty over dividend flows from GENM [26][30].