航运衍生品数据日报-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall shipping derivatives market shows a complex situation. The spot market has a tendency to increase prices in late June, and the futures market fluctuates upward. It is recommended to hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - SCFI and CCFI: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 2240, with a previous value of 2073 and a rise - fall rate of 8.09%. The current value of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1155, with a previous value of 1118 and a rise - fall rate of 3.34% [5] - Regional Routes: SCFI - US West has a current value of 5606, a rise - fall rate of 8.39%; SCFI - US East has a current value of 6933, a rise - fall rate of 11.15%; SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1667, a rise - fall rate of 5.04%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1252, a rise - fall rate of 0.40%; SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 3302, a rise - fall rate of 7.87%. However, SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1718, a fall rate of 0.12% [5] 3.2 EC Futures Contracts - Prices: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., their prices have different changes. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1936.8, a previous value of 1971.1, and a fall rate of - 1.74%; EC2508 has a current value of 2062.5, a previous value of 2146.3, and a fall rate of - 3.90%. But EC2604 has a current value of 1217.3, a previous value of 1205.7, and a rise rate of 0.96% [5] - Positions: The positions of different contracts also vary. For example, the current value of EC2506 position is 8138, with a decrease of 622 compared to the previous value; the current value of EC2508 position is 46227, with a decrease of 1027 compared to the previous value [5] - Monthly Spreads: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are 732.5, - 174.2, and 286.9 respectively, with changes of - 57.8, 11.8, and - 49.4 compared to the previous values [5] 3.3 Trade Situation - Tariff Adjustment: China will reduce the tariff on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce the tariff on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [5] - Trade Friction: There are signs of a resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions. Trump claims that China violated the agreement, and the US plans to impose broader sanctions on Chinese technology. Also, the US trade negotiation team has internal differences, which may complicate the negotiation in London on June 9 [6][7] 3.4 Market Situation - Spot Market: In late June, shipping companies are eager to raise prices. The COSCO offline quotation is 4200, CMA is 4250, etc. The market average transaction price in the first week of June is 2350 $/FEU, and the high - end (75% quantile) transaction price is 2700 $/FEU. Although the Far - East to Northern Europe route is not directly affected by Sino - US tariffs, the change in one region can affect the whole supply chain [8] - Futures Market: The price increase of shipping companies in late June stimulates the futures market to fluctuate upward. The near - month contracts of June and August are most affected, with the August contract being more elastic as June enters the delivery logic, while the far - month contracts follow the fundamental logic [8] 3.5 Strategy Recommendation - Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [9]