白糖数据日报-20250609

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating for the industry mentioned in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - Zheng sugar is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend. The reasons include the increasing global supply of sugar, with Brazil's central - southern region having a high - volume sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season, the arrival of imported sugar in the third quarter, the narrowing price difference between imported and domestic sugar, and the impact of low - cost substitutes on domestic sugar consumption [4]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data Domestic Spot Sugar Prices - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning warehouse is 6190 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 455 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In Yunnan, the price in Kunming is 5915 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, and the basis with SR09 is 280 yuan/ton with no change; in Dali, it is 5840 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the basis with SR09 is 245 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6205 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 370 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Futures Sugar Prices - SR09 is 5735 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; SR01 is 5590 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The spread between SR09 and SR01 is 145 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [4]. Exchange Rates and International Commodity Prices - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 7.1975, up 0.0030; the Brazilian real - RMB exchange rate is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee - RMB exchange rate is 0.084, down 0.0004. The ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.51 cents/pound, down 0.11 cents/pound; the London white sugar main contract is 573 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton; the Brent crude oil main contract is 66.65 dollars/barrel, up 1.36 dollars/barrel [4]. Supply - related Information - Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of April increased year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio remained high, and the expected sugar production in the 25/26 season may reach 42 million tons. The global supply pattern is strong. Imported sugar is expected to arrive in China starting from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter. The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil has dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot sugar has narrowed to 150 yuan/ton. From January to March, the import of syrup and premixed powder was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes are squeezing the consumption space of domestic sugar [4].