长江期货贵金属周报：经济韧性仍存，价格延续震荡-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. economic data shows resilience recently, with the May non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations, the April inflation data below expectations, and the Fed maintaining policy independence. Gold prices are in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The strong employment data and existing inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The Fed's May FOMC meeting maintained a hawkish stance. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in September but has lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude. Considering the repeated expectations of U.S. tariff policies and market concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, prices are expected to continue oscillating and adjusting, with a mid - term bullish outlook [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the U.S. May non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations and the market lowering the expected rate - cut amplitude, the price of U.S. gold slightly corrected. As of last Friday, U.S. gold closed at $3331 per ounce, up 0.5% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3390, and the lower support level is $3280 [6]. - The price of U.S. silver rose to catch up. As of last Friday, it had a weekly increase of 9.2%, closing at $36.13 per ounce. The lower support level is $34.5, and the upper resistance level is $37 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The U.S. May non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the Fed maintained policy independence, the April inflation data was below expectations, and recent U.S. economic data showed resilience, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of gold prices. The strong employment data and inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The Fed's May FOMC meeting maintained a hawkish stance, and Powell said that tariffs might have a lasting impact on inflation and that the Fed needs to wait for the situation to become clear before considering rate cuts. The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected in April. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in September and has lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude. Due to the repeated expectations of U.S. tariff policies and market concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, prices are expected to continue oscillating and adjusting, with a mid - term bullish outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to the U.S. May year - on - year inflation data to be released on Wednesday [10]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators There is no specific text - based summary information provided in the content, only some data charts are presented. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week | Economic Indicator | Announced Value | Expected Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | U.S. May non - farm payrolls change, seasonally adjusted (in millions) | 13.9 | 13 | 14.7 | | U.S. May unemployment rate (%) | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | | U.S. May ADP employment change (in millions) | 3.7 | 11 | 6.2 | | U.S. April durable goods orders monthly rate revision (%) | - 6.3 | - | - 6.3 | [20] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The U.S. May non - farm payrolls increased by 1.39 million, higher than the expected 1.3 million, and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. However, the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month - on - month, higher than expected and the previous value, indicating an upward risk of inflation. The strong employment data and inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. After the release of the non - farm data, the market lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude, expecting the annual rate - cut to be less than 50 basis points [21]. - The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but hinted that its one - year easing cycle would pause after the inflation rate finally reached the central bank's 2% target. Since last June, the ECB has cut rates eight times. Currently, the inflation rate in the eurozone is slightly below 2%, and ECB President Lagarde said the bank is in a "good position," leading investors to believe that even if the easing policy is not ended, rate cuts will pause [21]. - Representatives of the U.S. and the EU said that the bilateral trade negotiations are progressing rapidly. The new U.S. metal tariffs have disrupted the global economy again, increasing the urgency of the negotiations. U.S. President Trump's measure to double the import tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect on Wednesday. On the same day, the U.S. asked its trading partners to submit "best offers" to avoid other punitive tariffs from taking effect in July [21]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, this week, Comex inventory decreased by 20,897.20 kg to 1,185,582.5 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 600 kg to 17,847 kg. - For silver, this week, Comex inventory decreased by 40,062.53 kg to 15,387,521.69 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 51,055 kg to 1,117,940 kg [12][26]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of June 3, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 191,433 contracts, an increase of 14,371 contracts from last week. - As of June 3, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 59,230 contracts, an increase of 8,616 contracts from last week [12][31]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (June 11) at 20:30, the U.S. May year - on - year inflation data will be released. - On Thursday (June 12) at 20:30, the U.S. May PPI year - on - year data and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 will be announced. - On Friday (June 13) at 22:00, the preliminary value of the U.S. June University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [33].